coinpaper.com
The S&P 500 is on course to deliver another positive inflation-adjusted return in 2026, but this year's gains increasingly depend on corporate profits keeping pace with a tougher interest-rate environment.
The benchmark has risen roughly 12%–13% year to date through late August, comfortably exceeding the latest U.S. inflation readings. The Consumer Price Index was up about 3.4% over the year through July, while the Fed's preferred PCE measure rose 3.7%, leaving stock investors with a substantial positive real gain even after accounting for higher prices.
Earnings Are Doing More of the Work
The important part of the 2026 rally is what is supporting it.
S&P 500 companies reported extraordinary second-quarter results. FactSet said earnings growth reached its highest rate since the second quarter of 2021, while Reuters put year-over-year Q2 growth at roughly 33.5%.
FactSet also found that 86% of companies reporting through Aug. 7 had beaten earnings-per-share estimates, compared with five- and ten-year averages of 78% and 76%.
Analysts currently expect third-quarter earnings to expand by roughly 27%–28% year over year, with full-year profit growth around 30%.
That gives the equity rally a stronger fundamental foundation than a market driven only by expanding valuation multiples.
Artificial intelligence remains an important part of the story. Technology and communication-services companies have produced some of the strongest profit growth, while heavy investment in AI infrastructure continues to support earnings expectations.
The latest rally has repeatedly been lifted by AI stocks, with Nvidia and other semiconductor companies helping push the S&P 500 toward record territory during August.
Inflation Still Matters Even When Stocks Are Rising
A positive nominal stock-market return does not automatically translate into the same increase in purchasing power.
If the S&P 500 rises 13% while inflation is 3.5%, the simplified real return is approximately:
13% − 3.5% = 9.5%.
The exact inflation-adjusted calculation is slightly different because returns compound, but the subtraction provides a useful approximation.
That is also why comparing stocks with inflation helps put record index levels into perspective. Investors care not only about whether the S&P 500 rises, but whether those gains increase purchasing power faster than consumer prices.
Coinpaper's guide to real yields explains the same principle from the bond side: inflation determines how much of a nominal investment return remains in real terms.
Rising Treasury Yields Are the Bigger Risk
The obstacle now is that inflation is keeping borrowing costs elevated.
The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded above 5.2%, close to its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield has hovered around 4.7%. Higher Treasury yields increase the return investors can earn from relatively low-risk government debt and raise the discount rate applied to future corporate profits.
That pressure has already appeared in equities. The S&P 500 reached a record 7,798.99 on Aug. 13 before a bond selloff pulled stocks lower. The reversal was particularly painful for expensive technology and semiconductor shares.
The Fed is another risk. Markets sharply increased expectations for a September rate hike after Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that inflation remains too high, while renewed oil-price pressure has added another potential inflation catalyst.
For investors, that leaves a more nuanced picture than the headline “stocks beat inflation.”
The S&P 500 is still producing a strong real return in 2026, and exceptional earnings growth provides substantial support. But maintaining that advantage will increasingly depend on profits growing fast enough to offset persistent inflation, higher bond yields and tighter financial conditions.