“Fear” in The Crypto Market And Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500 Climbs to Highest Level of 2021
Crypto assets are not really having a good time, with Bitcoin stuck around $56,500 and Ether below $4,300. But crypto assets are not alone in that as speculative stocks aren’t any different as losses picked up in very-high-priced technology names as the bond market started to price in higher odds of rate hikes next year following President Joe Biden picking Jerome Powell for a second term as the Federal Reserve chairman. “The big-cap tech names have become synonymous with the risk-on/risk-off trade. When the big-cap tech names move in a significant way, other risk assets move in tandem,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. This has the 100-day correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 climbing to 0.33, which is among the highest readings of the year. A coefficient of 1 shows a strong correlation, while minus-1 would show they’re moving in opposite directions. The current figure means when stocks move up, Bitcoin is likely to do the same, and vice versa. “The recent drawdown in Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem has been tied to the selloff in the more risky growth names,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “So you’re seeing cryptocurrencies come off, and you’re seeing the high-flying growth names come down.” The lack of bullishness in the crypto market, except for particular crypto-assets, has the market sentiments turning to “fear,” as per Crypto Fear & Greed Index. https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1463192711004139524 While some may feel this might be the end of the crypto market, others believe this could be a sign of an extended cycle. “It's very possible "extended cycle" could partially play out. Bitcoin could top early January or whatever. ETH a bit later on. Alts in April and maybe DeFi even separately from other alts. Not everything must converge on one top point in time,” said popular crypto investor @bitcoinpanda69. Currently, there are a few potential factors that are playing a part in the market weakness, including a shifting macro outlook and crypto market conditions. Within crypto, as price drops, open interest for BTC and ETH, which is a proxy for leverage, has “started to decrease as pressure is placed on existing long positions,” as per Coin Metrics. As for Bitcoin miners, who are natural BTC sellers, their selling pressure has been minimal and is trending lower. Moreover, they use OTC desks to minimize their impact on the price. Recently, miners have started to HODL their BTC mining rewards.
On a macro front, with the US bond yields, especially with shorter-duration maturities, on a sharp rise over the last few weeks, capital might be reshuffling from riskier crypto assets to a “risk-free” rate of return. Amidst all this, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon couldn’t help but poke at cryptocurrencies. "It is not really a currency," Dimon said at the Boston College series of CEO interviews. These “crypto tokens” have no intrinsic value and have rallied on speculation fueled by government stimulus payments, he said, adding, “It is hysteria.”
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