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With the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs on the horizon, industry insiders are pointing to a potential launch date before July 4th. The imminent launch follows VankEck's form 8-A filing, which Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas called a “good sign” for a July 2 launch.
Lekker Capital's Quinn Thompson suggests that the current bearish sentiment among crypto investors could be a bullish indicator. In a recent post, Thompson predicted a calm period when sellers tire out, followed by a “slap in the face” moment when they realize their outlook is too bearish.
This could be triggered by positive spot ETH ETF flows upon launch or by competition among ETF issuers to offer the lowest fees. Thompson boldly predicts that “Ethereum will hit $7,000 and Bitcoin will make its first attempt at $100,000 by the November elections.”
Bitwise's Matt Hougan expects Ethereum ETF products to attract $15 billion in net flows in their first 18 months on the market. Hougan's prediction is based on data from Europe and Canada, where crypto ETFs have established markets.
While $15 billion is significantly less than the $56 billion investors have piled into US Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan still believes such a figure would be a “historic achievement.” However, he warns that initial net outflows from Ethereum ETFs are “highly likely” as investors exit Grayscale's Ethereum Trust.
Singapore-based QCP looks to the Bitcoin ETF launch for clues. “If Bitcoin ETF approval is any indication, we could see a similar 60% rally from here,” the firm said in a recent note. This would mean Ethereum would trade at around $5,430 in the months following the ETF launch.
Joe Lubin, Ethereum co-founder and founder of crypto infrastructure firm Consensys, expects a “flood” of demand for ETH, which will likely lead to a supply squeeze and push prices higher, according to Lubin. Institutions that already have exposure to Bitcoin ETFs “will likely want to diversify themselves into this second approved ETF,” Lubin said.
Analysts at research firm Bernstein predict that spot Ethereum ETFs will push the ETH price up 75% to $6,600. They estimated this figure by looking at how the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January spurred a 75% rally in the following weeks. “We expect a similar price movement for ETH,” Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a recent report. said.
*This is not investment advice.