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Bitcoin Meets Resistance At $57,270 But Remains Inside Ascending Price Channel - Will The 50-Days EMA Hold?


coincodex.com May 04 2021 08:38, UTC
Reading time: ~5 m

Key highlights:

  • Bitcoin rolled over today and dropped 3% after failing to break resistance around $57,270 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement).
  • The cryptocurrency had rebounded from support at the 100-days EMA last week and established a rising price channel, which it still remains within.
  • Bitcoin is now also holding support at the 50-days EMA.

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Bitcoin price $55,963
Key BTC resistance levels $57,500, $58,271, $60,000, $61,192, $62,500
Key BTC support levels $55,000, $53,400, $52,500, $51,313, $50,000

*Price at the time of writing

The price of Bitcoin took a slight 3% tumble today after rising into resistance at $58,270 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement). It had reached this resistance on Friday and could not break above it during the weekend. As a result, it has rolled over today and dropped as low as $55,000 before bouncing to the current $56,110 level.

The cryptocurrency had rebounded from support at $47,000 (.5 Fib Retracement) last week, and it went on to established an ascending price channel higher from there. The low seen today was also supported by the lower boundary of this price channel as the short-term uptrend remains intact.

It seems that the on-chain metrics continue to indicate that Bitcoin bought over the past several months are maturing as investors continue to HODL. The Realized Cap HODL Waves metric from Santiment shows that coins that are around 6months old are remaining dormant:

These were coins accumulated early in the bull market, and investors are still unwilling to sell even at 3x gains from there.

Additionally, the total circulating supply of the top-four stablecoins has spiked to new all-time highs with a combined total market cap of around $78 billion.

Further data from Glassnodes, known as the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), measures the Bitcoin supply over the stablecoin supply. It is currently showing that it is sitting at 2021 low, and a decreasing SSR is a very bullish signal as an increased stablecoin supply indicates increased buying power.

In other news, it appears that eBay is next up to start accepting cryptocurrency payment options to its platform. In an interview with CNBC, the CEO of eBay, Jamie Lannone, said that the company is continuing to look at cryptocurrency payment options. In addition to this, they will also be looking at opportunities to enable NFTs on their platform.

This is fantastic news for the industry as further institutions continue to adopt cryptocurrencies by either accepting them for payments or by purchasing large amounts as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin remains the cryptocurrency godfather as it currently holds a market cap value of around $1.05 trillion.

Let us take a quick look at the markets and see where we might be heading.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

What has been going on?

Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can see that Bitcoin set the most recent ATH price toward the middle of April when it neared $65,000. Unfortunately, it could not actually hit $65,000 and ended up rolling over from there as BTC slipped into a two-week downtrend.

It continued to decline until the final week of April when it finally found support at $47,000, provided by a long-term .5 Fib Retracement. More specifically, the 100-days EMA level was also there at around $49,000, and BTC never closed a daily candle beneath this support.

After rebounding in the last week of April, we can see that Bitcoin established an ascending price channel. It hit resistance at $68,270 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement) at the beginning of May and was unable to overcome this resistance.

From there, it started to roll over and head lower over the past four days. Today, the 3% price drop saw BTC falling beneath the $56,500 (.382 Fib Retracement) support to reach as low as $55,000 - where it found support at the lower boundary of the ascending price channel. It has since bounced from there again.

Bitcoin price short-term prediction: Neutral/Bullish

Bitcoin is still in somewhat of limbo right now. Although it is in a short-term ascending price channel, a break above the $58,270 resistance should help turn the market bullish. It would need to fall beneath the April lows at $47,000 before we could even start to consider a bearish market of any sort.

If the sellers do push lower, the first support lies at $55,000, which is provided by the 50-days EMA and the lower boundary of the current ascending price channel. Beneath this, support lies at $53,900 (.5 Fib Retracement), $52,500, $51,313 (.618 Fib Retracement), and $50,000 (100-days EMA).

Additional support beneath $50,000 lies at $49,000, $47,000 (long-term .5 Fib Retracement), $45,850 (downside 1.414 Fib Extension), and $45,000.

Where Is The Resistance Toward The Upside?

On the other side, the first strong resistance is located at $58,270 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement). This is immediately followed by resistance at $60,000. Beyond $60K, resistance can be found at $61,192, $62,500, $64,000, and then at the ATH near $65,000.

Beyond the ATH prices, resistance lies at $66,120 (1.272 Fib Extension), $67,500, $68,745 (1.414 Fib Extension - orange), and $70,000.

Where Are The Technical Indicators Showing?

The RSI was attempting to climb back above the midline but has since returned to it, indicating indecision within the market. If it does go on to drop beneath the midline, the increased bearish momentum is likely to push Bitcoin beneath the current ascending price channel.

Additionally, the Stochastic RSI has produced a bearish crossover signal in overbought territory which is a worrying signal.

Keep up-to-date with the latest Bitcoin Price Predictions here.

Previous BTC analysis

At CoinCodex, we regularly publish price analysis articles focused on the top cryptocurrencies. Here's 3 of our most recent articles about the price of Bitcoin:

  • Bitcoin Sees Recovery After Finding Support At 100-days EMA - Will It Head Back Above $60,000 This Week? (Neutral)
  • Bitcoin Price Analysis - BTC Drops Below $50,000 As Joe Biden Proposes New Tax Plans (Neutral)
  • Bitcoin Bulls Fighting To Hold Above .382 Fib Support After Weekend Flash Crash Caused By Financial Institution Money Laundering Rumors - Where Are We Heading? (Bullish)

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