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Bitcoin continues to trade sideways near $64,000 amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
While BTC struggles to find direction, one analyst predicts that the next uptrend in Bitcoin could come after the US midterm elections.
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency analytics company Alphractal, has once again raised the issue of the link between Bitcoin price movements and the US election calendar in his latest analysis.
Wedson argues that, looking at past market cycles, Bitcoin has exhibited similar price behavior, particularly before and after US midterm and presidential elections.
According to Wedson, Bitcoin has historically faced challenges before US midterm elections, but has recovered once the election uncertainty subsided.
According to the analyst, based on historical data, Bitcoin entered a bear market approximately a year before the US midterm elections in previous cycles, followed by prolonged bull markets after the elections.
“…Every time a president wins an election, Bitcoin experiences a strong rally.”
In some cycles, the price bottom occurred just a few days before the midterm elections, while in other periods, the bottoms were seen immediately after the elections.
The analyst also noted that presidential elections have a different impact, with Bitcoin rising strongly each time a president wins an election and approaching a major cycle peak shortly after the president takes office.
According to Wedson, XRP provides an even more striking example. It began a sharp rise on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reached its local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump took office.
*This is not investment advice.