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Bitcoin’s institutional demand will come back stronger, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The analyst noted that U.S. spot $BTC ETFs could follow gold ETFs’ ‘triumph and pain’ pattern and would eventually surge to a new record high.
Gold ETFs were briefly the world’s largest ETF in 2011 but spent another eight years in a downtrend trying to reclaim the spot, added Balchunas.
It briefly reclaimed it again in 2024, and a similar ‘two steps forward, one step back’ could happen for $BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs may be following the same script: spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors’ patience
Spot Bitcoin ETF still holding strong, but…The
Bitcoin price has dropped by nearly half from over $126K to $64K. In May and June 2026, the spot $BTC ETF outflows hit $7B as the crypto asset briefly slipped below $60K.
Even so, only 10% of spot $BTC ETF holders are left, compared to a third of gold ETF investors, Balchunas highlighted.
Another positive sign that $BTC could show resilience and try to defend $60K support was the long-term holder (LTH) supply. Although they have slowly reduced exposure in the past few weeks, this cohort was not net sellers yet.
According to Bitfinex analysts, $BTC’s recent dip below $60K was due to deleveraging and ETF outflows as LTH conviction was still intact. But the analysts warned,
Their 30-day net position stayed positive as ETFs shed nearly $4bn in June. Flows have now turned positive three straight sessions. The risk is LTHs finally flipping to net sellers.
That said, amid renewed U.S-Iran escalations, the two safe havens have not seen strong investor interest, as seen earlier in the year. In the past three months, gold ETFs recorded about $11B outflows while spot $BTC ETFs bled $6B. In other words, gold bled twice as much as $BTC.
It’s unclear whether $BTC will attract more capital and behave like a hedge if the West Asia crisis escalations extend into Q3.
However, the rising oil price above $80 coincided with Bitcoin [$BTC]’s sideways structure below $65K, signalling that energy market shocks could still derail the crypto’s upside.
Final Summary
- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas projected U.S. Spot $BTC ETFs will surge to a record high, citing gold’s past patterns
- In the meantime, rising oil prices could cap $BTC’s upside potential amid renewed West Asia escalations