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Crypto asset management company NYDIG has examined the performance of Bitcoin and gold in light of recent fluctuations in global markets.
The analysis, authored by Greg Cipolaro, Global Research Director at NYDIG, examines in detail why investors turn to gold during periods of increased geopolitical tension, and why Bitcoin remains under pressure in the short term.
According to the analysis, US President Donald Trump’s threat of new tariffs on European countries and his geopolitical rhetoric centered on Greenland triggered a sharp wave of “risk aversion” in global markets over the weekend. During this period, US futures indices declined, volatility increased, the cryptocurrency market lost value, while gold prices rapidly climbed towards historical highs. Although Trump’s subsequent softening of his rhetoric temporarily eased market concerns, it was noted that his sudden policy announcements still had a strong short-term impact on cryptocurrency markets.
The NYDIG analysis stated that while Bitcoin is theoretically seen as a hedge against geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, in practice it still behaves like a risky asset. According to Cipolaro, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with US stocks is approximately 0.51. This indicates that when market stress increases, Bitcoin is sold along with stocks, and it fails to fully fulfill its “macro hedge” role.
The report acknowledges that Bitcoin has made significant progress among institutional investors with the introduction of spot ETFs, but notes that gold still holds a much more established position. Gold has been positioned as a strategic asset in portfolios for decades, while Bitcoin is still considered by most institutions as a tactical and limited investment. This situation leads capital to flow primarily into gold during periods of uncertainty.
According to NYDIG, liquidity needs become a determining factor in stressful market conditions, and this dynamic works against Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s high liquidity, available 24/7, leads investors to quickly sell it to generate cash. Gold, on the other hand, acts as a “liquidity pool” during such periods, offering a more stable safe haven for portfolios.
The analysis noted that one of the key differences between gold and Bitcoin is the time horizon. Gold is preferred as it is more effective against short-term uncertainties, as long as markets price current geopolitical risks as temporary and manageable. BTC, on the other hand, demonstrates its primary strength as a hedge against long-term monetary disruption, erosion of confidence, and systemic risks, and therefore gains significance on a scale of years, not weeks.
NYDIG noted that recent selling by large Bitcoin holders has also put pressure on the price. In addition to large wallets that have sold billions of dollars in the past, it pointed out that long-held BTC have been moved to exchanges in recent weeks. Conversely, central banks continuing their gold purchases is deepening the divergence between the two assets.
On the other hand, recent setbacks in US cryptocurrency legislation have also negatively impacted market sentiment. The suspension of the market structure bill in the Senate and criticisms of the bill by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong indicate that regulatory uncertainty will continue in the short term.
According to NYDIG, all these factors are causing Bitcoin to underperform compared to gold in the short term. However, Cipolaro argues that the long-term investment thesis remains valid and that BTC’s structural role may become clearer over time.
*This is not investment advice.