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Cryptocurrency markets are facing a new macro risk premium, according to a recent assessment published by QCP Capital.
The sharp weakening of the US dollar has led to a rise in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, but it is noted that Bitcoin’s upward trend has not been sustainable.
QCP Capital’s report stated that the US dollar saw strong selling in the early hours of the Asian session, triggering a shift towards alternative store of value. As the dollar weakened, gold and silver extended their gains, while Bitcoin failed to hold above the $92,000 level and retreated before the opening of the European session.
The report states that this move was influenced by statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell’s comments regarding the US Justice Department’s summons to the Fed and threats of potential criminal charges were perceived by markets as retaliation against the Fed’s monetary policy stance. According to QCP, the short-term economic effects may be limited; however, questioning central bank independence sends a strong signal that could damage institutional credibility.
It was noted that this perception has historically driven investors towards alternative stores of value, and that this is why gold and silver are maintaining their current positive momentum. Bitcoin, despite participating in the initial buying wave, was rejected at the $92,000 level and retreated, exhibiting a price behavior that QCP describes as a “familiar fourth-quarter pattern”.
Flows in derivative markets also indicate that bullish expectations have been postponed. QCP reported that there was a partial reduction in positions in long-term call options last week, with investors shifting towards contracts with later expiry dates and higher strike prices. Furthermore, it was stated that the continued selling pressure during the US trading session and the uncertainty surrounding the market’s supply surplus limited upward movement in Bitcoin.
In its assessment, QCP Capital noted that in an environment of increasing macroeconomic volatility, the relative attractiveness of crypto assets is being challenged against precious metals and equity markets, which have maintained their resilience.
In the coming days, the markets will be focused on the US CPI data (Tuesday, January 13) and the US Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs (Wednesday, January 14). According to QCP, these two developments will be decisive in determining risk appetite and asset positioning.
*This is not investment advice.