coindesk.com
VanEck has outlined a long-term framework that values bitcoin at roughly $2.9 million by 2050, according to a research blog post published by the asset manager on Thursday.
The analysis, titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” was authored by Matthew Sigel, the firm’s head of digital assets research, and Patrick Bush, a senior investment analyst for digital assets. In the post, Sigel presents what VanEck describes as a base-case valuation model for bitcoin extending through 2050, estimating an annualized return of about 15% over the period.
Rather than framing the estimate as a price target, the blog post characterizes it as a valuation exercise centered on how bitcoin could be utilized if adoption expands significantly beyond its current role as a trading asset. VanEck’s framework does not rely on traditional equity valuation metrics, but instead models bitcoin’s value through adoption scenarios.
Settlement layer and reserve asset
One key assumption in the base case is bitcoin’s use as a settlement asset in global trade. VanEck’s model assumes bitcoin could eventually handle between 5% and 10% of international trade settlement volume. Another assumption is that central banks gradually allocate a small portion of their reserves to bitcoin, reflecting diversification away from sovereign currencies over long time horizons.
Those assumptions represent a sharp departure from current conditions. As VanEck notes in the post, bitcoin today plays a negligible role in trade settlement and is not held as a reserve asset by major central banks. The firm acknowledges that its base case depends on regulatory clarity, operational infrastructure and political acceptance that have yet to materialize.
The authors also emphasize the volatility that would likely accompany such adoption. VanEck models long-term annualized volatility between roughly 40% and 70%, a range it compares to frontier markets rather than traditional financial assets. Even in its bear-case scenario, however, the firm still assumes positive long-term returns, reflecting what it describes as bitcoin’s growing structural relevance.
VanEck’s framework places particular emphasis on macroeconomic factors. According to the post, bitcoin’s historical price behavior has shown closer alignment with global liquidity trends than with equities or commodities. The firm argues that correlations with broad money supply growth, along with a weakening relationship with the U.S. dollar, suggest bitcoin’s drivers may be becoming more global over time.
From a portfolio perspective, the analysis suggests that relatively small allocations — typically ranging from 1% to 3% — have historically improved risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios. The firm stresses that this does not imply bitcoin is low-risk, but rather that its volatility has not translated proportionally into portfolio-level risk when position sizes are constrained.