news.bitcoin.com
Bitcoin briefly surged past $90K on Dec. 29, briefly lifting its market cap above $1.8 trillion before retreating, exposing weak liquidity and reinforcing a bearish structure. While selling pressure has cooled, buyers remain hesitant, though rising funding rates and $1 billion in open interest show retail traders are betting on a January recovery.
Technical Rejection and the Liquidity Void
In the early hours of Dec. 29, bitcoin ( BTC) topped $90,000 to briefly revive hopes that the top cryptocurrency may close the year with gains. The nearly 2% gain also saw BTC’s total market cap briefly surpass $1.8 trillion and helped push the broader crypto economy’s market capitalization beyond $3.1 trillion.
However, after peaking at a local high of $90,300, bitcoin’s momentum faltered. The swift retreat below the $90,000 psychological threshold revealed a significant liquidity void and heavy overhead supply at that level. This ‘fake-out’ or rejection reinforces the prevailing bearish market structure, suggesting that the recent downtrend lacks the necessary buying pressure to convert former resistance into a new support floor.
Some analysts, pointing to the cryptocurrency’s price action throughout much of December, are skeptical about BTC’s prospects of reaching its Jan. 1 price of $93,500 by Dec. 31. They highlight persistent outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seen in the last two weeks of December as evidence that large players remain in a risk-off mode heading into 2026.
Read more: Bitcoin’s Big Squeeze: Bulls and Bears Brace for a Breakout Brawl
Bullish Divergence in the Futures Market
Market data shows that since Dec. 15, bitcoin ETFs have experienced net inflows only once; outflows dominated the remaining days. Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index, which stood around 25 at the time of writing, again suggests that the anticipated “Santa Claus rally” will not materialize. On the other hand, technical indicators like the relative strength index ( RSI), currently hovering around a neutral 45 to 50, indicate a reset from previous overbought conditions. This suggests that aggressive selling has cooled, but buyers have not yet taken full control.
Still, some market sentiment indicators suggest investors anticipate a BTC recovery in January. For instance, Cryptoquant data shows the bitcoin funding rate — a key barometer of crypto sentiment — at its highest level in over two months, signaling growing demand for bullish bets in the perpetual futures market.
Meanwhile, the latest Cryptoquant market report points to a $1 billion increase in bitcoin open interest as further proof, undercutting the capitulation narrative. According to the Dec. 27 report, $450 million in fresh leverage was added in seven days, while bitcoin positions grew 2% weekly in December. This opening of new positions suggests traders are betting on a recovery.
“Binance, Bybit, and OKX showed steady accumulation. Gate.io led [the] expansion. Every tracked exchange maintained or grew positions rather than clearing risk during December’s decline. This contradicts capitulation signals. True bottoms form when leverage clears, not builds. Fear Index at 27 with growing open interest suggests stubborn optimism persists. Markets haven’t reached [the] despair required for final washout,” the report concludes.
So while activity collapsed by 40% and whales withdrew 20,000 BTC, retail investors leveraged up, as evidenced by positive funding rates.
FAQ 💡
- What happened to Bitcoin on Dec. 29? BTC briefly topped $90,000 before retreating below the key psychological level.
- Why did momentum stall after the $90K peak? Heavy overhead supply and thin liquidity triggered a swift rejection.
- Are ETFs influencing year‑end price action? Persistent December outflows show institutions remain risk‑off heading into 2026.
- Is there hope for a January rebound? Rising funding rates and $1B in open interest signal retail optimism for recovery.