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Bitcoin (BTC) price has failed to rise in the fourth quarter of 2025, as expected. The flagship coin has failed to track major global financial instruments, including precious metals and stock indexes.
While the Bitcoin price has dropped over 11% since President Donald Trump took office earlier this year, the Silver price has more than doubled in 2025.
Bitcoin Bulls vs Bears: Analysts Share Different Expectations for 2026
Bullish Supercycle 2026
According to analyst KALEO, the Bitcoin price is trapped in a ‘boring’ consolidation phase akin to the fall of 2020. This analyst detailed a thesis that Bitcoin price has been in the same recovery bull phase it was after the 2020 Covid crash.
“In both scenarios, BTC lost a key support line it had held dating back to the recovery from a major crash. This led to a mini-bart scenario where the price found a base for a new range after retracing nearly the entirety of its last major leg up,” the analyst stated.
With Bitcoin price having rebounded to a new all-time high in 2021, this analyst expects the flagship coin to rebound in a supercycle in 2026. The midterm bullish sentiment for Bitcoin is backed by reduced selling pressure from whales amid renewed demand from retail investors.
According to onchain data from CryptoQuant, whales have reduced profit-taking, and Santiment shows a renewed demand from retailers.
Bearish Sentiment Leans on the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle
According to a popular crypto trader, TRACER, the Bitcoin price has been forming a similar reversal fractal pattern to the 2021 top-out. The crypto analyst mapped out a similar fractal Bitcoin top in the past year, akin to its 2021 reversal pattern.
With the Bitcoin price attempting to form a bearish flag pattern on the weekly timeframe, this analyst expects further capitulation towards $60k in 2026. However, the analyst’s bearish sentiment will be invalidated if Bitcoin price rebounds from its support level around $80k and rallies above $100k in the coming weeks.
Related: CryptoQuant Analyst Warns of Heightened Risk for Bitcoin as Sentiment Turns Red
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