Sub $30K Bitcoin price sell-off would require panic ‘to a large degree’

Order books, essentially the list of orders that a trading outlet implements to show the interest of buyers and sellers, show considerable buyer interest in the $30,000 region on large exchanges Coinbase and Binance.

There is 5,000 Bitcoin sat ready to purchase down to a $30,000 price, and another 7,000 $BTC down to a $28,000 price on Binance.

The sell-off may not be over, but Bitcoin ($BTC) buyers can take solace in the knowledge that order books in the $28,500 to $30,000 region are dense. Consequently, the price plunge due to Russia’s military operations may take a breather. 

Binance order book. Source: ThinkingBitmex Twitter

Binance is one of the leading exchanges worldwide, consistently demonstrating the largest spot volume over a 24 hour period, according to Statista. 

For Coinbase, it’s a similar story with more acute numbers. There is roughly 3,500 Bitcoin ready to buy for prices approaching $30,000, and 4,500 Bitcoin ready to gobble up Bitcoin down to $28,000.

Glassnode reported that “futures open interest just reached a 6-month low of $1,780,397,103.63” on the Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange, FTX. 

Open interest has been trending down across all exchanges for the past few weeks, meaning that fewer traders are “liquidated” and volatile price swings are less likely.

$BTC open interest on FTX. Source: Glassnode

Metrics on exchanges Bybit and Binance Futures also reveal minimal open interest. In essence, these exchanges won’t be “deleveraging us out” of the current bearish price action and leveraged positions are waning.

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So if leveraged positions or “liquidation cascades” won’t drive the price lower, and there is major but interest down to the $30,000 levels, then what would cause a sub $30,000 Bitcoin?

Spot selling. There has to be a strong reason for sellers who didn’t sell the last time Bitcoin was sub $33,000 to do so this time.

Fear and greed index, Source: Twitter

With the Bitcoin Fear and greed index creeping into the “extreme fear” region once more, and $BTC dipping 12% overnight, investors' conviction will once again be tested.