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Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, research and brokerage firm Bernstein has highlighted a significant change in the regulatory landscape for Bitcoin (BTC).
The regulatory hurdle that has been stifling the industry for long is now turning into a positive tailwind that the market is yet to fully recognise or account for, according to a note published on Wednesday by analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Analysts have expressed optimism about the possibility of a new, more “crypto-friendly” Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman and Senate Banking Committee that could accelerate long-awaited regulatory clarity. Under current Chairman Gary Gensler, the SEC has taken an aggressive approach, taking legal action against major industry players like Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, and Robinhood, and expanding its oversight to DeFi, NFT, and stablecoin projects.
Chhugani expressed the industry’s desire for clear regulations that separate digital assets from traditional securities, as well as laws that define the roles of crypto exchanges and DeFi platforms. Expedited approvals for investment vehicles like ETFs and measures that allow banks to hold and manage crypto assets are also high on the industry’s wish list.
Bernstein’s note predicts faster legislative progress on stablecoin and market structure bills, which would benefit U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges as well as companies like Circle and Paxos. In the medium term, analysts predict progress in defining crypto regulations that would elevate a broader range of digital assets currently plagued by regulatory uncertainty surrounding their classification as securities.
Trump’s campaign promises have bolstered the crypto community’s hopes for policy reform, including plans to fire Gensler “on day one,” transform the U.S. into a global Bitcoin mining leader, and create a national strategic BTC reserve. Bernstein predicts that these promises will be largely fulfilled under Trump.
Moreover, with Republicans on track to take control of the presidency, the House, and the Senate — a surprising result signaled by Trump’s popular vote victory — Bernstein noted that crypto superintendents are helping to usher in a wave of crypto-friendly lawmakers. “We expect a new crypto rulemaking regime, and this transformational change is not being priced in,” the analysts wrote.
While acknowledging the potential for an initial market reaction of “selling the news,” Bernstein suggested that such a drop would be a significant buying opportunity for crypto assets and related stocks. The firm reiterated its bullish outlook for bitcoin, predicting a move to $90,000 by year-end and a cycle top of $200,000 by the close of 2025 under Trump’s presidency.
*This is not investment advice.