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Recently Chepicap got in touch with the broadcaster and perpetual Bitcoin bull, Max Keiser. With his wealth of knowledge following a full decade of immersion in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and his prior years commenting and partaking in the stock market, Keiser shared his views on the potentially bittersweet future of Bitcoin, altcoins, gold, and the wider global economy…
Bitcoin to $100k?: "Still on track"
Keiser's prediction for Bitcoin - or rather, that of his venture firm Heisenberg capital - has been a steadfast and constant one, stretching back as far as 2011. The firm made this call back in 2011 when Bitcoin (BTC) was a mere dollar, suggesting that one day it could go up as high as $100,000; marking what was most probably one of the first BTC predictions ever made.
While this forecast has been floating around the space for a while, the fundamental reasoning behind it hasn’t really been fully explained, until now… “This is based on Bitcoin capturing at a minimum 1 or 2% of the global forex market. The global forex market is a 5 trillion dollars per day market, we think that Bitcoin would capture at least 1% of that market,” says Keiser.
Interestingly, more forex brokers are starting to accept Bitcoin deposits, which may add to Keiser's assumption that, despite Bitcoin only being 6% on its way to its goal, the prediction is “still on track.”
However, when prompted for a time frame Keiser refused, adding that “market timing is for losers”:
“I don’t like to put a date on it because the community is not served well when people put a date on their predictions, because then the community tries to time it and market timing is almost always a losing idea…”
Keiser suggested, that due to the leap between $6k and $100k, Bitcoin would undoubtedly be “outperforming every other asset class in the world,” this, of course, includes gold, whose current role, Keiser noted, was Bitcoin’s best case scenario for the future:
“If it gets to a market equivalent of gold, then the price would be 3 or 4 times high than that [$100,000]”
Gold vs Bitcoin: "Volatility and opportunity go together"
On the topic of the precious metal, the conversation turned to the recent #dropgold campaign from greyscale, whose slick marketing whimsically highlighted the benefits of Bitcoin over gold. Keiser suggested that gold might need to start marketing itself in light of its new digital competitor:
“My first reaction would be that gold needs better marketing … gold for thousands of years has never had to market itself, and now it does because it has a competitor.”
Today we unveiled our #DropGold TV commercial. We think it's a #MustWatch
— Grayscale (@GrayscaleInvest) May 1, 2019
sound ON! pic.twitter.com/SEGAmMItsE
When challenged on the drawback of Bitcoin volatility, Keiser responded that it was less volatile than a lot of other currencies, adding that eventually, this volatility will subside:
“As Bitcoin transitions from a store of value, to a medium of exchange, to a unit of account, it will have above average volatility.
One of the reasons why we do pick $100,000 as a price target is that we see the volatility at that point flapping out tremendously so that you might have 1 or 2% variations over 6-month periods of time.”
Read more: Bitcoin or Gold? Or both?
Taking the gold vs Bitcoin debate further Keiser suggests that the precious metal's capacity for growth is fairly insubstantial when compared to the promise of Bitcoin:
“Gold at the very best possible scenario will increase by maybe 3 or 4x, in the case of Bitcoin obviously that number is substantially higher … Volatility and opportunity go together.
You have to step back and look at the bigger picture and say ‘where we gonna be in the five years, am I willing to accept greater volatility in my Bitcoin than my gold, and make 10 to 20 times more,’ yeah, I think so, why not?”
When questioned on whether Bitcoin was a riskier investment over gold due to this volatility, Keiser noted that time played a key mitigating factor:
“If you have an investing horizon of 5-10 years then the risk vs gold drops down to near-parity.”
All altcoins must die: "The market will reject them"
It wasn't just gold taking Keiser's flak, but altcoins too, with the self-professed Bitcoin maximalist suggesting that all altcoins will ultimately die off:
“There’s nothing any altcoin can do that bitcoin can’t do now, or won't be able to do in the near future, so there’s no need for them, they add nothing to the market, so the market will reject them.”
We see the market rejecting everything, except BTC.
— Heisenberg Capital (@HeisenbergCap) May 5, 2019
This has been our dominant investing thesis since 2011.
We’re doubling down on Bitcoin Maximalism with new capital.
As BTC climbs toward our 2011 target of $100,000, we believe everything except BTC will die-off.
Read more: 'As BTC climbs towards $100,000, altcoins will die-off'
Is the stock market about to crash?: “it's like an avalanche that needs one snowflake...”
Digressing to the short term, the discussion turned to the god tier resistance around $6k - the very same that provided support for the majority of 2018’s crypto winter. Keiser offered his catalyst for a potential breakthrough:
“Is the stock market about to crash? ... I think the answer is yes, so Bitcoin would cut through the $6000 resistance pretty easily, make new all-time highs … there’s very little supply between $6000 and $10,000 so any amount of demand will take us to new all-time highs.”
However, Keiser suggests that this wouldn’t be without a significant correction, auguring this to occur around $28,000.
When queried the gravity of needing a stock market crash in order to get through resistance, Keiser scoffed, “it’s not much,” before adding, “it's like an avalanche that needs one snowflake...”
You can find Chepicap’s full interview with Max Keiser below! Subscribe to our Youtube channel for more crypto news and interviews!