thecryptobasic.com
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$XRP has embarked on another price recovery push which could again test the $1.70 area, but chart data suggests this may be the most important retest.
For context, the latest $XRP correction pushed the price to $1.47 on Oct. 1. However, $XRP has started to recover as October moves forward, with the price gaining nearly 3% on Oct. 2.
Amid the recovery, analyst Casi believes $XRP could retest the $1.70 level again. More importantly, she sees this potential third test as the most crucial one yet.
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Notably, $XRP has already tested this area twice since last month. The first came during the strong rally in late August, when prices climbed from $0.99 on Aug. 19 to $1.6977 on Aug. 22 before meeting resistance and pulling back.
$XRP returned to the area after recovering from $1.25 on Sept. 16. The price reached $1.65 on Sept. 24 before resistance again pushed it lower, eventually bringing $XRP to $1.47 on Oct. 1. The asset is now recovering again and could soon approach the same resistance zone for a third time.
Casi said she expects $XRP to complete another upward wave over the next few days and retest the $1.65-$1.70 resistance area. This suggestion comes after $XRP spent weeks consolidating below this level.
According to her, the market is also showing signs that the current W5 structure has not fully developed. After examining the smaller waves within Wave 5 (W5), Casi believes $XRP may be close to ending a short consolidation before making another move toward resistance.
Meanwhile, the macro RSI already shows bearish conditions. Casi noted that she was watching for another level of bearish divergence. If this appears, it could provide stronger confirmation that W5 has ended and $XRP has started completing W1.
However, it may not be advisable to open a long position, as W5 has already reached its 0.5 extension. As a result, buying at this stage would mean entering during W5 of W5 of W1, which could leave traders vulnerable to chasing the move because of FOMO.
If the current wave finishes around $1.65 to $1.70 as expected, the market could record a larger correction. The market analyst mentioned $1.26, $1.10, and potentially $0.87 as downside targets.
However, she also identified a level that could change her view. A strong move above approximately $1.80, together with an RSI reading that breaks its previous high instead of forming bearish divergence, would invalidate the structure she currently expects.
That makes the next test of $1.65-$1.70 important in her analysis. A rejection could support the bearish-divergence case, but a strong breakout could weaken it and open the way toward higher levels.
Meanwhile, market research firm Santiment recently reported that sentiment toward Ethereum and $XRP had turned negative at the start of October across X, Telegram, Reddit, and other social platforms.
😬 Ethereum and $XRP sentiment has suddenly turned very negative to kick off October. $ETH is down to 0.89 bullish comments per bearish comment across X, Telegram, Reddit, and other social platforms. This is its lowest ratio since June 7. $XRP sits at just 0.67, its lowest since… pic.twitter.com/ajxBKBVewE
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) October 1, 2026
Santiment recorded $XRP at 0.67 bullish comments for every bearish comment, its lowest ratio since Aug. 17. A ratio below 1.0 means bearish commentary makes up the majority of the discussion across the platforms tracked by Santiment. Ethereum recorded a ratio of 0.89, its lowest level since June 7.
Santiment noted that heavy pessimism can sometimes create a contrarian setup because traders may have already priced in much of the fear and selling. Its social analysis has also found that stronger fear combined with quieter optimism can create different conditions from periods when traders broadly expect prices to keep rising.
Notably, this could support the expected push toward $1.65-$1.70. However, Santiment admitted that negative sentiment does not guarantee an immediate rebound for $XRP or Ethereum.
