Oil shock and inflation fears drag down bitcoin

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to below $67,000 as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove investors out of risk assets and into the U.S. dollar.

As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.

Shipping rates for crude and liquefied natural gas tankers surged after vessels were targeted in the region and several operators suspended activity. Brent crude climbed more than 13% in the past five days, while freight costs for large oil tankers reached record levels.

The shock is hitting financial markets. The dollar index (DXY) is up nearly 1% and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as investors move away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face renewed inflation pressure from rising fuel costs.

Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 earlier in the week but reversed course as the conflict erupted. Cryptocurrency prices have nevertheless remained range-bound despite the escalation.

The initial U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend pushed bitcoin and ether lower, triggering about $300 million in long liquidations, but QCP Capital analysts described the deleveraging as orderly compared with previous episodes earlier this year.

The analysts added that options markets showed a brief spike in short-term volatility, though positioning suggests traders were prepared for weekend risk.

“If we recall the previous U.S. strike on Iran last June (also a weekend), $BTC broke below $100,000 as the news broke only to trade back above on Monday, and subsequently rallied to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts wrote. “While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself.”

Options flows show buyers are positioning themselves for a potential rally beyond the $70,000 mark. That suggests investors are looking for a rebound this month after the market’s severe downturn.

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the standoff, with conflicting statements from Iranian and U.S. officials over whether the waterway is closed. U.S. President Donald Trump has said the war is expected to last “four to five weeks.” Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • March 3: SolCex mobile app to launch on Google Play and Apple’s App Store.
• Macro
  • March 3, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone inflation rate YoY flash for February (Prev. 1.7%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.2%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to appoint PTT as the Tokenomics Workstream Leader for a 6-month term, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to explore the automatic execution of approved proposals and soft term limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • No major launches.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Nothing scheduled.

Market Movements

• $BTC is down 3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,918.56 (24hrs: +0.57%)
• $ETH is down 4.04% at $1,959.34 (24hrs: unchanged)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% at 1,927.49 (24hrs: +0.59%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.86%
• $BTC funding rate is at -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.89% at 99.25
• Gold futures are down 0.30% at $5,278.60
• Silver futures are down 4.65% at $84.18
• Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05
• Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,768.08
• FTSE 100 is down 2.76% at 10,478.54
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 3.49% at 5,777.18
• DJIA closed on Monday down 0.15% at 48,904.78
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 9 bps at 4.05%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.83% at 6,762.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.30% at 24,448.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.74% at 48,104.00

Bitcoin Stats

• $BTC Dominance: 58.81%
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $29.14
• Total Fees: 2.65 $BTC / $179,647
• CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 $BTC
• $BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz
• $BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

• $BTC/USD weekly remains technically constrained below the 200-week EMA, with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) of 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming a sideways grind between $65,000 and $70,000.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $185.24 (+5.34%), –5.64% at $174.80 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), –5.66% at $20.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), –4.97% at $8.98
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.43 (+0.86%), –5.11% at $15.59
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), –3.76% at $15.87
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), –4.83% at $10.04
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), –4.23% at $38.72
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), –6.57% at $89.82
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), –2.69% at $32.90

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), –4.42% at $131.56
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), –4.24% at $8.36
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), –5.41% at $6.99
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot $BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $458.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.24 billion
• Total $BTC holdings ~ 1.27 million

Spot $ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $38.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
• Total $ETH holdings ~ 5.67 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Japan prime minister Sanae Takaichi disavows Solana meme coin after it crashes by 75% (CoinDesk): Japan’s prime minister says she has no knowledge of or involvement in a Solana-based meme token that briefly reached a $27.7 million market cap before tumbling.

Iran war live: Israel strikes Tehran and Beirut; drones hit US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions tore through Tehran and Beirut and financial markets worldwide crumbled at the prospect of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies from U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

U.S. closes 2 Gulf embassies as Iran steps up retaliation (The New York Times): The U.S. closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone attacks and urged Americans to depart immediately from 14 Middle East countries, as Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes.

Dow futures fall; oil prices rise (The Wall Street Journal): Futures for the three main U.S. indexes dropped at least 1.4%. Stocks in Europe and Asia skidded, and oil prices rose, as the Middle East conflict showed signs of escalating on its fourth day.