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$XRP appears to be following an ABC correction pattern from the 2021 cycle, which may suggest when and where the asset could form a bottom.
Notably, the $XRP downturn has lingered for longer than most investors expected. After the 35.39% decline in the last quarter of 2025, $XRP began 2026 with an aggressive recovery attempt, soaring 31% from $1.84 on Jan. 1 to a high of $2.41 five days later, as investors believed the downturn was over. However, this rally met resistance quickly.
$XRP has since corrected 41% from the $2.41 high, currently trading for $1.42, a low last seen in November 2024. As the downturn extends to its fifth month, historical data from $XRP’s performance in 2021 has hinted that the current bear phase could end in March 2026 at a bottom price of $1.2.
Key Points
- After a turbulent Q4 2025, which led to a 35% drawdown in $XRP’s price, a rebound ensued earlier this year, resulting in a 31% recovery.
- While investors believed this marked the end of the downturn, resistance at $2.41 pushed the $XRP price back to new lows.
- $XRP now changes hands at $1.42, representing its lowest price since the Trump-led rally in November 2024.
- With the downward trend now entering its fifth month, historical data suggests an end could come in March 2026 at a low of $1.2.
$XRP Now Close to Multi-Year Support Trendline
Market watcher Charting Guy suggested this during a recent market exposition. The analyst shared an $XRP chart indicating that $XRP has been trading above a multi-year ascending trendline on the 1-week chart since 2020, after it started recovering from the cycle bottom of $0.1140 in March 2020.
This trendline has acted as a solid dynamic support for $XRP in times of sustained bearish pressure, sloping higher to present a reasonable cushion at higher lows over the years. Notably, $XRP broke below the support trendline when it dropped below $0.6 in April 2024. However, it recovered and soared above it following the November 2024 rally beyond $1.
After this rally, $XRP maintained a position far above the support trendline throughout 2025 despite occasional price declines. However, now that the Q4 2025 downtrend has spilled into 2026, leading to lower prices, $XRP trades closer to the trendline that it has been since November 2024.
$XRP Could Bottom at $1.2 in March
Currently, the trendline aligns with the price range around $1.05 to $1.1, while $XRP changes hands at $1.43, having dropped by more than 22% this year alone. Interestingly, Charting Guy believes $XRP could slope further to actually retest the trendline support, but he suggests that a breakdown may not occur.
According to him, the trendline could push toward the $1.2 price by March 2026, with $XRP dropping further to this level. However, he believes this development would mark the bottom for $XRP, expecting the multi-year trendline to act as the reliable support that could break the ongoing downtrend.
Notably, for $XRP to reach $1.2, it would need to decline by an additional 16% from the current price, a move that would take its year-to-date loss to 34.7%. Nonetheless, if Charting Guy’s suggestion proves true, $XRP could recover from this level.
Historical Data from $XRP’s 2021 Performance
The analyst’s projection was inspired by historical data from $XRP’s 2021 performance. Specifically, during the correction that began in 2021 after $XRP collapsed from the $1.96 high in April, the prices saw consistent declines for months. However, when $XRP retested the trendline at $0.28 in June 2022, this marked the bottom.
From here, $XRP recovered, but only saw gradual price upticks that lasted for two years instead of an explosive run. While Charting Guy believes $XRP would see a similar bottom at $1.2 in March 2026, he says it is “unlikely” that $XRP sees another mild uptick for two years before soaring to new highs.
Data from his chart also points to a similar ABC correction that existed in 2021. Specifically, $XRP concluded the C wave in June 2022 at the $0.28 bottom. The chart shows $XRP currently trades within another C wave, and could end at $1.2, representing the bottom. This aligns with a previous report from The Crypto Basic.