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$XRP has returned to a rare long-term position against Ethereum after breaking above the two-week Ichimoku Cloud.
For context, the Ichimoku Cloud structure has historically limited $XRP’s strength relative to $ETH, capping $XRP’s momentum during bullish uptrends. However, $XRP/$ETH now sits at a level where the cloud has moved from resistance to a potential support zone, a situation that has occurred only once before in 2021.
Key Points
- $XRP currently trades for 0.00061 $ETH after a recent two-week decline of just over 6%, while remaining above the Ichimoku Cloud.
- The $XRP/$ETH pair spent most of 2018 to 2024 below the cloud, with repeated failures to push above it.
- The only previous cloud breakout occurred in early 2021 and failed within a few two-week candles.
- $XRP/$ETH reached a cycle bottom of 0.0001251 in June 2024 before $XRP staged another breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud in November 2024.
- Now, despite a pullback, the $XRP/$ETH pair is holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, looking to transform it to support.
$XRP/$ETH Price Development
Matt Hughes, a prominent analyst who calls himself “The Great Mattsby,” called attention to this development in his latest commentary. His analysis focused on the $XRP/$ETH pair on the two-week timeframe.
The $XRP/$ETH chart shows $XRP trading around 0.00062 $ETH at the time of his disclosure, with the latest two-week candle reflecting a decline of just over 6%. Hughes drew attention to the broader trend structure, noting that $XRP is attempting to hold above the two-week Ichimoku Cloud, something it has not sustained since 2021.
Historical Structure
Historically, the Ichimoku Cloud has acted as a dominant ceiling for $XRP when measured against $ETH. From 2016 to early 2018, the pair experienced extreme volatility, including sharp rallies that pushed $XRP/$ETH above 0.0036 $ETH by December 2018 before reversing lower.
However, once the cloud fully formed on the higher timeframe, $XRP struggled to reclaim that ground. Between 2018 and 2020, nearly every recovery attempt stalled as the price approached the cloud, with repeated rejections occurring between 0.001 and 0.0036 $ETH. During this period, the cloud remained thick and above price.
$XRP/$ETH Cloud Breakout First Came in 2021
Hughes highlighted 2021 as the only exception. In the first quarter of that year, $XRP/$ETH broke above the two-week cloud. Nonetheless, the breakout lasted only a handful of two-week candles. The cloud failed to transition into long-term support, and $XRP soon fell back below it. By late 2021 and into 2022, the pair resumed its broader downtrend.
From 2022 through mid-2024, $XRP/$ETH spent an extended period trading beneath a downward-sloping Ichimoku Cloud. During this phase, the cloud repeatedly capped upside attempts at the 0.0004 $ETH region. The Kijun-sen remained above the price for long stretches, indicating a persistent bearish structure. This weakness culminated in $XRP/$ETH bottoming at 0.0001251 in June 2024.
$XRP Holds Above the Ichimoku Cloud After Latest Breakout
The bullish development Hughes is now watching began in late 2024. Specifically, $XRP/$ETH broke above the two-week cloud when it soared from 0.00017 to cross 0.0008 by December 2024, representing a structural change not seen in years.
As 2025 progressed, the cloud ahead thinned noticeably, suggesting reduced resistance. $XRP/$ETH then advanced to a 5-year peak of 0.00139 by April 2025. However, it’s been downhill since then, with the pair now down 56% from the April 2025 high.
Despite this, the $XRP/$ETH pair still holds above the Ichimoku Cloud, now retesting the top as support. This places the cloud beneath price rather than overhead, aligning with Hughes’ observation that $XRP is attempting to flip the two-week cloud into support. The Tenkan-sen has moved above the Kijun-sen, indicating improving medium-term momentum.