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On the surface, $XRP's market position appears remarkably stable, but the underlying structure reveals a more nuanced picture. The price is presently trapped in a corrective channel and keeps missing important moving averages.
Capitalization attack
A deeper breakdown was prevented by $XRP's recent recovery from local lows, but the 50-100 EMA cluster's resistance caused the recovery to stall. This failure to follow through is significant because it restricts XRPs momentum at a time when it would require consistent upward pressure to pose a significant threat to Binance Coin's market capitalization.
From a pure price action standpoint, $XRP is not yet in a confirmed reversal but rather is still attempting to recover. The market is currently consolidating slightly above short-term support after failing to break higher. Instead of accumulation aggression, the RSI is hovering in neutral territory, which indicates indecision. To put it another way, $XRP is neither being chased nor being sold off aggressively.
Unless there is an outside catalyst, that kind of behavior rarely results in an abrupt rank flip. $XRP is in a paradoxical situation from a fundamental standpoint. The growing number of transactions on the network indicates that the ledger is being used actively. Nonetheless, the volume of payments is still erratic and occasionally much lower.
$XRP's recovery chances
This divergence implies that rather than being large-scale value transfers, many transactions are smaller, utility-driven or internal. Another level of complexity is introduced by institutional exposure through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While inflows are present and generally consistent, they have not resulted in immediate price dominance.
A significant amount of that exposure is structured passive and not always focused on short-term gains. Is it feasible for $XRP to surpass BNB in market capitalization? Not right now. In order for that to occur, $XRP would require a significant institutional rerating or a clear increase in high-value on-chain transfers, in addition to a strong technical breakout.