$XRP has now completed a backtest of its Ichimoku Cloud breakout on the 2-week timeframe, according to market analyst Cantonese Cat.
The market pundit highlighted this development in one of his latest commentaries on X. Data from his accompanying chart confirms that $XRP broke above the Ichimoku Cloud during the November 2024 rally, but consolidated above it throughout 2024 and has now backtested the breakout.
Interestingly, this pattern emerged on the 2-week chart. Because it highlights the broader market structure rather than short-term volatility, analysts tend to place greater weight on signals drawn from such longer-term timeframes.
Key Data Points
- $XRP broke above the Ichimoku Cloud in November 2024 when prices soared above the $0.6 resistance.
- After this breakout, $XRP hit a new peak above $3 in July and then pulled back to consolidate throughout 2024.
- The consolidation ended when $XRP collapsed in Q4 2024, leading to a backtest of the Ichimoku Cloud breakout.
- With January 2026 providing a relief rally, $XRP has now held support above the cloud, completing the backtest.
Historical Context Leading into the Breakout
For most of 2024, $XRP changed hands below the Ichimoku Cloud, with price largely trading under $0.60. This period coincided with a red (bearish) cloud overhead, indicating persistent downside pressure and resistance. However, the structure changed in November 2024.
In early November 2024, $XRP printed two large bullish 2-week candles that surged from roughly $0.50 to above $2.9. These candles broke through long-standing horizontal resistance and cleared the entire Ichimoku Cloud.
The breakout also coincided with a change in the forward-projected cloud from red to green, indicating a transition from bearish to bullish market structure. Notably, this marked $XRP’s first confirmed 2-week Ichimoku Cloud breakout in years.
$XRP’s Post-Breakout Expansion and Consolidation
Following the breakout, $XRP continued higher into December 2024 and January 2025, reaching a peak of $3.4. During this phase, several Ichimoku components moved in favor of trend continuation.
Specifically, the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) pushed above the Kijun-sen (base line), signaling improving short- and medium-term momentum, while the Chikou Span (lagging line) cleared both price and the cloud and confirmed the trend strength.
However, between February and July 2025, $XRP entered a consolidation range, as its price fluctuated between $1.6 and $2 on the downside and a range of $3 to $3.60 on the upside. Despite heightened volatility and long wicks on several candles, $XRP did not post a 2-week close back inside the cloud.
The Backtest Phase
Meanwhile, the most important phase occurred during late October to early November 2025. After rolling over from the mid-$3 range, $XRP retraced toward the top of the green Ichimoku Cloud. The price fell into the $1.90 to $2.00 area, directly interacting with Senkou Span A and the rising Kijun-sen.
This move represented an Ichimoku backtest, where price returns to the cloud after a breakout to confirm whether former resistance has flipped into support. Importantly, $XRP held this zone. Notably, no 2-week candle closed below the cloud, and the cloud itself remained green and upward-sloping.
Backtest Completion and Current Structure
In the weeks following the pullback, $XRP began stabilizing above the cloud. By January 2026, price had reclaimed the Tenkan-sen and was trading above $2, with the Kijun-sen stationed just below price. The forward cloud remains green, indicating that bullish structural conditions are still in place.
This sequence, which involves a breakout above the cloud, prolonged consolidation above it, a pullback into the cloud, and a successful hold, prompted Cantonese Cat to conclude that $XRP has now completed the backtest of its 2-week Ichimoku Cloud breakout. Such a backtest is mostly bullish for future price action.
thecryptobasic.com