finbold.com
In recent years, $XRP investors have been keen on the asset hitting a new record high amid increased volatility, but cryptocurrency markets are suggesting the target might be achieved in the course of 2026.
Specifically, data from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, suggests that market participants see late 2026 as the most likely window for $XRP to set a new record high.
According to probabilities retrieved by Finbold on January 7, the likelihood of $XRP reaching a fresh all-time high by the end of December 2026 stands at 38%, making it the most favored outcome among the available timeframes.
Expectations are lower earlier in the year, with March 31, 2026, carrying an 8% probability, rising to 25% by June 30 and 31% by September 30.
Notably, Polymarket operates by allowing users to trade outcomes using crypto-backed contracts, meaning prices reflect collective market positioning rather than analyst opinion.
$XRP path to record high
These expectations align with broader market dynamics currently supporting $XRP. The token has staged a strong recovery in early 2026, buoyed by rising institutional exposure through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and improving liquidity conditions.
$XRP’s existing all-time high, set during the last major rally, remains just below the $4 mark. Breaking that level would require sustained capital inflows and a continuation of the positive momentum that has characterized recent months. At the same time, the asset will likely require support from broader market sentiment.
Indeed, $XRP’s path to a new record high has stalled despite the asset being backed by several fundamental drivers.
Most importantly, it was widely anticipated that the token would reach a new high following the resolution of the long-standing legal case between Ripple and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC).
Similarly, the rollout of spot ETFs in the United States was expected to fuel a price rally, but some analysts suggest these developments may already be priced in, leaving $XRP increasingly reliant on broader market sentiment.
$XRP price analysis
By press time, $XRP was trading at $2.25, having plunged 4.5% over the past 24 hours, while on a weekly basis, the asset remains up more than 20%.
At the current price, $XRP is holding above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.04, signaling that short-term momentum remains constructive. However, the price is still below the 200-day SMA at $2.45, indicating that the broader trend has yet to turn bullish fully and that overhead resistance remains significant.
Meanwhile, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stands at 69.9, sitting just below overbought territory. This suggests strong recent buying pressure but also indicates limited near-term upside unless new demand emerges.
Featured image via Shutterstock