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Over the past month, Solana has underperformed noticeably with prices declining and exhibiting notable hesitancy at important resistance levels. Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Chris Burniske claims that the main cause of this poor performance is the build-up to a token unlock event that is set for March 1, 2025.
Approximately 112 million SOL tokens worth $263 billion or 23% of the current supply will be released during the event. Unlocking tokens is an essential part of any cryptocurrency. Concerns about oversupply and sell pressure may surface when a lot of tokens are introduced to the market, prompting investors to make early position adjustments.
According to Burniske, investors are preparing for the worst as the market has already priced in the unlock, which has probably contributed to SOL's recent weakness. According to the given daily chart, Solana is trapped in a bearish descending triangle pattern, which is indicative of the continuous downward pressure.
The price has held at the 26 EMA (currently around $215) and has repeatedly failed to break above the descending trendline. Buyers risk a further decline toward the 200 EMA at about $194 or even lower to the $172 support zone if they are unable to hold this level. A decrease in momentum is also evident in the trading volume, which suggests that investors are becoming less interested or cautious.
This is consistent with the general market mood impacted by the impending unlock. Burniske appears to have a point. Large unlocks have historically caused price corrections as some investors choose to sell off newly available tokens out of concern for future drops. As we are currently seeing with SOL, market psychology frequently leads to preemptive actions even though this sell-off pressure may become apparent closer to March.
Burniske says that Solana will get through it in spite of the generally pessimistic outlook. The impact of the token unlock may eventually be mitigated by Solana's robust ecosystem and expanding user base. A recovery may be possible if SOL is able to regain the declining trendline around $225 and gain upward momentum. However, given the ongoing uncertainty and the critical price levels, caution is still necessary in the near term.