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Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has pointed to a promising technical setup in TOTAL3, fueling speculation that the altcoin season cycle may close. The analyst comments come as the broader crypto market sees a notable bounce, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly crossing $93,000 and several altcoins showing strong gains.
But how soon could altcoin season actually arrive? This analysis delves into other factors that could either ignite or delay the anticipated rally.
Altcoin Season on Standby, Analyst Says
For context, TOTAL3 is the entire market capitalization of the top 125 cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and Ethereum (ETH). Historically, when this metric rises, it indicates that altcoin season could be on the horizon as long as Bitcoin dominance drops.
Deutscher’s post on X (formerly Twitter) showed the TOTAL3 monthly chart, indicating that it had formed strong support. The post also revealed that the recent rise in altcoin prices has taken the market cap above notable resistance.
“TOTAL3 (altcoin index) monthly chart. Setup looks fantastic, honestly.” Deutscher wrote on X.
While the analyst’s opinion might be valid, one obstacle that could hinder the altcoin season cycle is Bitcoin’s dominance. Bitcoin dominance refers to the ratio of BTC’s market capitalization compared to the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.
As of this writing, the BTC.D, as it is popularly known, is 61.33%. This indicates that the number one cryptocurrency still has a strong hold on the market. For alt season to commence, this ratio has to drop, which Deutscher himself admitted on November 12.
“Bitcoin dominance keeps grinding higher. Only when BTC dominance breaks down can a true alt season ignite.” The analyst emphasized.
Altcoins Surge Could Be Delayed Until BTC Drops
Currently, Blockchaincenter’s altcoin season index, which measures whether the market is in an alt season, has dropped one place to 29. About one week ago, the reading was 30. For confirmation, at least 75% of the top 50 cryptos need to outperform BTC.
Despite this uptick, the index remains well below the 75 threshold, as only 16 of the top cryptocurrencies have outpaced Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
Should that remain the case, then Bitcoin’s price might climb to a higher value before most altcoins hit new highs. However, if BTC experiences a double-digit correction, this could give way for alts to thrive. If that happens, then alt season can officially begin.