en
Back to the list

Concerning Blockchain: From Euphoria to Breaking Illusions


Margareth Nail

Two years ago, the importance of the emergence of blockchain was compared with the advent of the Internet. Distributed ledgers were supposed to make a revolution in various industries and unrecognizably change the existing world order. However, nowadays the blockchain is considered as an outstanding technology that can solve only small tasks. Bitnewstoday is trying to find out how the blockchain has turned from revolutionary know-how into an ordinary technology.

How blockchain has become a tech superhero

Until 2017, blockchain technology was actively discussed only in business circles. Besides, the opinion of experts on distributed ledgers varied greatly.

For some of them, it was an opportunity to transform the business. They began to attract the brightest minds to implement the blockchain and spend a lot of money on experiments.

Others were wary of the new technology. However, many of them also just in a case decided to take up the issue of distributed ledgers.

Still, others decided to capitalize on the interest of the first and second ones and began to stamp products based on the blockchain.

The fourth decided to watch everything that was happening, however, believing that the blockchain would change everything.

31-05-2018 00:00:00  |   Investments
When the price of Bitcoin broke all the possible records (and the prices of altcoins followed), huge investments began to draw attention to ICO projects, and investors received impressive profits and there was a lot of hype about the blockchain.

Besides that, a new religion has appeared, the so-called crypto evangelism. At this time, crypto conferences started taking place around the world, which was more like a show. The crypto-anarchists spoke, prophesying the dissolvement of the traditional financial system, governments, intermediaries. It was even said that thanks to the blockchain, a new kind of society would be built — fair, independent, without corrupt rulers, etc.

The business was also given into hysteria. Almost all conferences and forums that were held at this time had a blockchain session on their agenda. There is practically no industry left that wouldn’t try their hands on the blockchain.

14-05-2019 15:41:35  |   Investments
However, the attention of business and common men to the blockchain was not focused for long. The first ones quickly became disillusioned without waiting for the super results from the implementation of distributed ledgers. The others were disappointed to realize that most ICOs are scammers who don’t have blockchain-based working products. Distributed ledgers have evolved from super-know-how to ordinary technology in a year’s time.

Sobering time

In 2018, Gartner placed distributed ledgers in the “abyss of disappointment” on its chart.

Pic. 1. Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technology, 2018

ce52007861ed61e3ef2c56fcafcc7f72.png

29-05-2019 17:54:19  |   Technology
In just a year, technology has made its way from the zone of "high expectations" to the zone of getting rid of illusions. Moreover, some technologies cannot get out of the last zone, and they are forgotten forever. Frankly speaking, many experts still believe that the blockchain has every chance to break out of the abyss of disappointment.

When the technology will become interesting to the masses again and find its application in some cases, the blockchain can start climbing, according to analysts, but only after 2020. Whereas the technology will be massively introduced no earlier than 2028.

This year, Gartner introduced the chart directly to the technology itself — Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, 2019.

Pic. 2. Hype Cycle for Blockchain Business, 2019

efe0405a606ff06d3e361baca18ac50d.jpg

According to a Gartner study in 2018, (more than 3,000 IT directors were interviewed) only 1% of companies invested in the blockchain and are now at the implementation stage. 22% are only planning to do this.

Forrester Research also notes that 90% of blockchain projects in the United States will not go into operation.

Analysts say that the technology is not ready for large-scale implementation since standards are not developed so far.

Problems arising during the implementation of the blockchain are associated with the immaturity of the technology and the lack of consensus in the industry. There is no final product ready for scalable implementation by enterprises.

In the end, it was the information buzz around technology that played a cruel joke on the blockchain. It could have been better not to introduce distributed ledgers blindly just because they definitely change something for the better, but to understand what problems they could solve and think whether there was another, cheaper technology at this stage. However, all those experiments are still useful on a societal scale; eventually they will help to form a useful product.

At this stage, it is too early to say that blockchain is an ordinary technology. Most likely, it was just ahead of time. The immaturity of the legislation, the inconsistency of players, the lack of understanding of the value of the blockchain make most of the projects on the implementation of this technology "empty." It is likely that in the future it will still live up to the hopes — but certainly not those of crypto anarchists.

Back to the list