Is It Possible for Bitcoin to Hit the $150,000 Mark by the End of the Year?

As the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has paved the way for numerous other digital assets, capturing the attention of both retail and institutional investors. Since its 2009 inception, Bitcoin has stood out as the top cryptocurrency, even if other digital assets emerged, and notably, it has experienced significant price fluctuations, reaching a peak of nearly $70,000 in late 2021.

In the first five months of 2025, Bitcoin’s price increased by 74%, reaching a peak of around $112,000 on May 15. It then cooled to about $105,000 in early June, and if you look at the real-time price of Bitcoin, the asset now has a value of around $100,000. Currently, investors are left wondering how Bitcoin will perform for the remainder of the year and whether it can reach the $150,000 mark. If you want to learn more about the likelihood of this scenario and what to expect from your favorite crypto, read on!

A look at the factors that could fuel the price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price can fluctuate depending on various factors. As for 2025, there are a few catalysts that could lead to a price increase:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, marking a significant shift in the cryptocurrency landscape. These financial instruments provide investors with a more regulated and accessible means of gaining exposure to Bitcoin without directly purchasing the asset. Recent data shows that the cumulative trading volume of ETFs is about to cross $1 trillion this month. As these instruments continue to gain traction, they promise to impact market dynamics and how cryptocurrencies are perceived in mainstream finance in a major way.

While a spot Bitcoin ETF does not directly impact Bitcoin’s price, it can serve as a catalyst by fueling its adoption and further validating the asset’s legitimacy within the financial system. This can bolster confidence in the asset and drive its price higher.

Institutional demand

Over 30% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is now in the hands of exchanges, public companies, ETFs, and sovereign entities as well. This is an all-time high that highlights the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset, and it’s forecasted that there will be an additional $120 billion in institutional flows before the end of the year. While institutional investors were once hesitant about Bitcoin, they are now increasingly drawn to its potential. This shift is driven by a combination of factors that align with the investors’ goals and the evolving economic landscape.

In an era marked by rising inflation concerns, Bitcoin has established itself as a safe haven. Unlike fiat currencies, it has a finite supply of 21 million coins. This scarcity, alongside its decentralized nature, makes Bitcoin resistant to inflationary pressures. As governments grapple with increasing prices worldwide, institutions are relying on Bitcoin to preserve their capital and hedge against the erosion of purchasing power.

Global adoption

Policy clarity is now expanding. Europe’s sweeping MiCA rules, which have become entirely enforceable since December 2024, enable exchanges to passport their licenses across the EU. At the same time, London aims to lift its ban on retail exchange-traded notes (ETNs) this year.

President Trump also promises lighter-touch oversight and the implementation of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve, which can benefit corporate treasuries looking for a hedge against skyrocketing deficits. All of these factors could help Bitcoin reach new heights, but as always, it remains to be seen to what extent they will really impact the asset’s future performance.

Challenges that could affect the performance of Bitcoin

While there are potential catalysts for Bitcoin’s price, three tail risks are present: market corrections, primarily regulations, and whale behavior.

Regulatory risks

Regulation remains a critical factor that affects Bitcoin’s price. MiCA’s capital-reserve demands, as well as the decision of Google to restrict EU crypto ads to firms that are MiCA-licensed, tighten the costs of compliance, and in Washington, proposals to redefine cryptocurrencies as securities still hang over the market. This raises concerns that an XRP-style enforcement saga could begin again.

Market corrections

Market corrections shape investor psychology and broader economic factors, and they have a profound influence on the performance of crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Macroeconomic shocks, such as tariff volleys, could trigger a quick re-pricing for Bitcoin. Whenever countries raise or decrease tariffs, it signals the market that there are economic tensions or cooperation, and these events can impact investor confidence either directly or indirectly.

Tariffs shape financial conditions in many ways, impacting inflation and consumer prices and triggering economic uncertainty. While Bitcoin isn’t controlled by a single government, global economic events can still affect its performance, as investors may look for alternative assets.

Whale sell-offs

Whale activity has been notable recently, with addresses holding 1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC selling off major portions of their holdings.

The selling pressure is probably a response to the recent price increase of Bitcoin, as large holders may be unsure of the sustainability of the rally. This type of selling, however, can be detrimental to the price of Bitcoin, creating bearish pressure.

Is the $150,000 target achievable for Bitcoin?

Mathematically, $150,000 would mean a market cap of approximately $3 trillion, representing more than 10% of the global gold value. Suppose another $75 billion flows into ETFs, and leverage remains muted; that target could indeed be attainable. However, a significant regulatory rug-pull and aggressive Fed tightening could put off this milestone.

Timing matters when it comes to Bitcoin’s performance; the previous two cycles saw 30-40% mid-cycle drawdowns before the price could recover. A price correction to the low $90s by the end of the year, followed by a Q4 surge, could make it possible for Bitcoin to achieve a price of over $150,000 by New Year’s Eve. Simply put, while Bitcoin could go to the moon by the end of 2025, it won’t happen in a straight line.

The bottom line

Bitcoin has experienced ups and downs throughout its journey, and predicting its future performance with 100% accuracy is an impossible task. Many catalysts could help Bitcoin reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, but this is not guaranteed, as certain factors could hinder this growth. All in all, investors should expect volatility, keep a close eye on policy headlines, and size their positions accordingly.

Image source: https://unsplash.com/photos/gold-colored-bitcoin-iGYiBhdNTpE