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The House of Representatives and Senate are both up for grabs this week as the U.S. returns to the polls.
The big question is which party will control the Senate in January. Republicans currently control 53 seats, while Democrats control 45. Two independent senators fill out that body, though they both caucus with Democrats. Democrats are expected to flip the North Carolina Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Thom Tillis (R), and they'll need to flip four overall to gain control of that body. There are currently seven Senate races rated as "tossups" on Cook Political Report.
These races, as well as polling averages and prediction market projections, are included below. It's worth noting that the polling averages in this list roughly measure people's responses to questions about who they'd vote for. The prediction market projections, which are being included for informational purposes, indicate which candidates people will bet money on winning. While polls and prediction markets may indicate the same thing directionally, they are actually measuring slightly different things. It's also worth noting prediction markets essentially whiffed on last week's Brazil election, giving incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a roughly 20% chance of winning (he won).
- Ohio Senate — Senator Jon Husted (R, incumbent) vs. Sherrod Brown (D). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give Brown a 71% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give Brown a 71% chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 47.9% of respondents say they'll vote for Brown vs 45.3% voting for Husted. Cook Political in particular has shifted this race in Democrats' direction in recent weeks. Upheaval in the Ohio governor's race, after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring his opponent Amy Acton's estranged mother, may also affect this race. Fairshake poured $56 million into opposing Brown, while the Digital Freedom Fund (the PAC backed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss) poured roughly $7 million against Brown.
- Kansas Senate — Senator Roger Marshall (R, incumbent) vs. Adam Hamilton (D). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give Hamilton a 52% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give Hamilton a 53% chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 47.6% of respondents say they'll vote for Hamilton vs 45.4% voting for Marshall.
- Alaska Senate — Senator Dan Sullivan (R, incumbent) vs. Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give Peltola a 69% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give Peltola a 71 chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 49.4% of respondents say they'll vote for Peltola vs 48.2% voting for Sullivan.
- Michigan Senate — Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give El-Sayed a 73% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give El-Sayed a 74% chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 49.1% of respondents say they'll vote for El-Sayed vs. 45.6% voting for Rogers.
- Texas Senate — Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give Talarico a 71% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give Talarico a 72% chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 48.8% of respondents say they'll vote for Talarico vs. 47% voting for Paxton.
- Iowa Senate — Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) vs. State Rep. Josh Turek (D). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give Hinson a 55% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give Hinson a 55% chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 46% of respondents say they'll vote for Hinson vs. 45.5% voting for Turek. Digital Freedom Fund put $418,000 into this race in favor of Hinson.
- Maine Senate — Senator Susan Collins (R, incumbent) vs. Troy Jackson (D). Cook Political Report rates this race a tossup; Kalshi bettors give Jackson a 69% chance to win; Polymarket bettors give Jackson a 69% chance to win; RealClearPolitics' poll average says 48.7% of respondents say they'll vote for Jackson vs. 47.3% voting for Collins.
