u.today
Cryptocurrency trader and educator PlanB (@100trillionUSD) compared the results of his past four surveys on his Twitter account. The only question he asked was about the biggest risks Bitcoin (BTC) faces.
Coronavirus is worse than Plustoken
As per the survey results revealed by PlanB, 42.5% of voters believe that the COVID-19 outbreak and its economic impact pose the greatest threat to the prosperity of the Bitcoin (BTC) network.
Mr. PlanB highlighted that his audience may be captured by recency bias. In January, the PlusToken Ponzi funds sell-off was seen as Bitcoin's (BTC) worst enemy. As reported by U.Today, these concerns were not baseless at all: Bitcoin (BTC) price drops had a correlation to PlusToken sellings.
In February the voters were scared by futures manipulation which highly likely may be caused by a merciless one-hour $100M liquidation on Deribit. In March the possible capitulation of miners was labeled the scariest Bitcoin (BTC) threat.
On Good and Bad Models
Mr. PlanB also explained why his 'Stock-to-Flow' Bitcoin (BTC) price model is different from any other prediction:
Reason people like my S2F model is probably that I am very frank about it being just a model "all models are wrong, some are useful" and being not very precise "it's better being roughly right than exactly wrong".
That approach was welcomed by global macro investor Raoul Pal of Real Vision Group. He announced that he is a champion of 'generally correct' models because:
Models that help give contextualisation are incredibly useful, models the are supposed to be a black box of perfection are generally not.