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As the FED prepares to announce its most critical interest rate decision of the year tomorrow at 22:00 Türkiye time (UTC+3), pricing on the prediction market Polymarket clearly shows investor expectations.
Markets believe a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting is almost certain, data show.
In Polymarket, the “25 basis point rate cut” scenario has a clear lead with a 97% probability. A more aggressive “50 basis point or more rate cut” scenario is priced with only a 1% probability. The “no change in interest rates” option, which means the Fed will keep interest rates steady, has a 3% probability.
The market has completely ignored the possibility of an interest rate hike. The “25 basis point or more interest rate hike” scenario has a probability of less than 1%.
We at Bitcoinsistemi.com will be instantly sharing tomorrow's Fed decision. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference regarding the interest rate decision tomorrow at 10:30 PM. You can follow this meeting directly on our platform.
*This is not investment advice.