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The threat of quantum computers in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem is back on the agenda. A Bitcoin developer said the industry is unprepared for a future where state-backed institutions could hack cryptocurrency infrastructures through super-fast quantum computers.
The warning came during a panel discussion at today’s ETHDenver conference. The panel included Bitcoin developer Hunter Beast, Bitcoin Rails podcast host Isabel Foxen Duke, and Alex Pruden, CEO of Project 11, a company working on blockchain security against quantum threats.
Beast pointed out that the risk is more complex than initially thought, saying, “We’re not prepared for all the effects this will have right now. We’re facing an extremely broad and multifaceted problem.”
Concerns about the quantum threat gained momentum with the Willow quantum chip, introduced by Google in December 2024.
According to Project 11 CEO Pruden, Willow isn’t directly capable of breaking Bitcoin; however, it represents a critical milestone in demonstrating that this technology is on a scalable path.
In addition, an academic study published this month by researchers in Sydney, Australia, revealed that some types of encryption (including Bitcoin wallets) can be broken with quantum computers that have lower capacity than previously thought.
Pruden stated, “The threshold for breaking down is decreasing, but at the same time, technological progress is accelerating. At some point, these two lines will intersect.”
According to Beast, the quantum race isn’t just about technology giants. “The real big players are intelligence agencies,” Beast said, adding that the technology costs billions of dollars and its primary strategic use is in interstate codebreaking capabilities.
Quantum computers have the potential to break not only Bitcoin’s cryptography but also the widely used RSA encryption system worldwide. This means that a country that develops a powerful quantum computer could gain an advantage in accessing the encrypted data of other countries.
While it’s generally accepted that Bitcoin will need to transition to new, quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms in the long term, there’s no consensus within the developer community.
Some influential figures argue that a cryptographically meaningful quantum computer is decades away. Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr stated in December, “Quantum isn’t a real threat. Bitcoin has bigger problems to solve.”
However, Beast finds this approach risky:
“We shouldn’t tie the future of Bitcoin to the assumption that technological progress will slow down.”
According to experts, a quantum computer capable of cracking Bitcoin does not yet exist. However, both academic advancements and government-backed research indicate that the threat has moved beyond being a “distant future” and has become an issue requiring strategic planning.
*This is not investment advice.