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Bitcoin Price Analysis - BTC Creates First High Market Structure as Bull Run Reignites


coincodex.com 13 August 2021 15:43, UTC
Reading time: ~5 m

Key highlights:

  • BTC is up by a strong 14% this week as the cryptocurrency battles to get above $46,300
  • The number one ranked cryptocurrency saw a brief retracement throughout the week by found support at around $44,000
  • Today, BTC surged another 3% to rise back into the weekly $46,300 resistance
Bitcoin price $46,400
Key BTC resistance levels $46,500, $47,820, $49,325, $50,000, $50,660
Key BTC support levels $44,000, $42,500, $42,000, $40,900, $40,000

*Price at the time of publication

Bitcoin is up by another 14% over the week as the cryptocurrency battles to climb further above $46,300. The coin had hit as high as $46,780 on Wednesday but rolled over from there to hit support at the $44,000 level, provided by a short-term rising trend line. 

Today, BTC rebounded from this support and pushed higher again to climb back above $46,000 and head toward $46,300.

Since breaking out of the descending wedge consolidation pattern at the end of July, BTC has surged by a whopping 57% as it initially climbed higher inside an ascending price channel formation. After a brief retracement into $38,000, BTC continued to explode last week, taking it as high as $46,780 on Wednesday.

It seems that Elon Musk appearing on the B-Word on July 21st has had a huge impact on the market. This was the exact date that BTC managed to break its previous consolidation pattern and start to surge higher. In the interview, Musk stated that he holds a lot of BTC in his personal holdings and also continued by saying that Tesla will soon be accepting BTC payments again. 

The approval from Elon Musk seemed to have kickstarted the bull rally again as the sentiment within the market started to shift to positive as BTC started to rally higher. 

The optimism within the market is translating into new users coming into BTC. Willy Woo, a prominent on-chain analyst, pointed out that the User Growth on the Bitcoin network is growing at its fastest rate ever recorded. In the last 30 days alone, 1.2 million users were added to the BTC network - almost the same number of people gained during the entire 2013-2014 cycle.

Users on the Bitcoin network is now growing at its fastest rate ever.

1.2m users were added in the last 30 days.

Does not include off-chain users on exchanges which typically sees up to 3x this number. pic.twitter.com/pcTf2gWWfb

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) August 11, 2021

Woo would further comment stating that this is the equivalent of onboarding a country the size of El Salvador every two months.
Additionally, this week, Coinbase announced their quarterly earnings report, which smashed all of the expected numbers - proving that exchange use has still been very high despite the market volatility over the past few months. 

Furthermore, Willy Woo also pointed out that the distribution for BTC continues to improve as the total percentage of supply held by whales has now dropped to just 25%:

#Bitcoin distribution keeps getting better. Whales now hold only 25% of the supply.

I've updated this chart to include holdings by public companies. Though they are whales, their coins are owned by a large number of public shareholders.

Satoshi's coins omitted (assumed lost). pic.twitter.com/fEHFFQ5rOS

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) August 12, 2021

BTC now holds a total market cap value of around $70 billion.

Bitcoin price analysis

Daily chart

4-hour chart

What has been going on?

Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can clearly see the epic run that BTC has been on over the past three weeks. The cryptocurrency penetrated above the descending wedge formation on the day that Elon Musk made his appearance at the B-Word conference and started to surge higher inside an ascending price channel. 

The price channel allowed BTC to reach as high as $42,000 by the end of July, but BTC would then break the price channel in the first few days of August to meet the support at $37,500, provided by a .382 Fib Retracement.

Since hitting this support, BTC would continue its ascent until meeting resistance around $46,500 this week. 

It struggled to break this resistance over the week and even dropped into the support at $44,000 over the past few days. This support was further bolstered by a short-term rising price channel that is best seen on the 4-hour chart. 

Today, BTC rebounded higher and is now battling $46,500 again.

Bitcoin price short-term prediction: Bullish

The recent price hike over the past three weeks has now turned BTC bullish in the short term. BTC would now have to drop beneath the August support at $37,500 to turn neutral in the short term and would need to continue further beneath $31,500 to be in danger of turning bearish.

If the sellers do push lower, the first level of support lies at $44,000, provided by the short-term rising trend line. This is followed by support at $42,500 (July high), $42,000 (.5 Fib Retracement), $40,900 (.618 Fib Retracement), and $40,000.

Where is the resistance toward the upside?

On the other side, the first resistance lies at $47,800 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement). This is followed by $49,300 (1.272 Fib Extension), $50,000, and $50,650 (1.618 Fib Extension - orange).

If the buyers can continue to push BTC higher beyond $52,000, additional resistance lies at $53,000 (bearish .786 Fib Retracement), $54,000, and $56,000 (bearish .886 Fib Retracement). Further resistance lies at $58,000, $59,600, and $60,000.

Keep up-to-date with the latest Bitcoin Price Predictions here.

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