en.bitcoinsistemi.com
Institutional market maker Wintermute reported that the cryptocurrency market is consolidating in a volatile yet durable band, with investor interest increasingly shifting to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
While BTC’s recovery to $94,000 following nearly $2 billion in liquidations last week demonstrates that the market is able to absorb shocks, overall volatility remains high, according to the analyst firm.
According to Wintermute's assessment, both retail and institutional investor flows are trending positively towards BTC and ETH. However, tight futures bases indicate continued low market appetite for leveraged directional positions. Investors are opting for delta-neutral and carry strategies rather than taking directional altcoin risks ahead of Fed decisions and macroeconomic data.
Global markets, which have been under pressure from macro uncertainty for the past two months, have now begun to show a greater tolerance for negative data. While factors such as interest rate policy, complex macro data, and the sustainability of AI-driven capital spending continue to raise concerns, these factors no longer generate immediate risk-off reactions.
According to the analytics firm, this environment is creating a “digestion period” rather than a clear trend on the crypto side. BTC has risen back to $94,000. The total crypto market capitalization has recovered to around $3.25 trillion. Last Friday, liquidations exceeded $2 billion in BTC in a single hour, momentarily pulling the price down by approximately $4,000. Despite this, the continued sell-off demonstrates the market's capacity for recovery.
Wintermute notes that the loss of momentum in the Nasdaq has led investors to take more selective risk-taking rather than “large beta,” and on the crypto side, this has resulted in simultaneous inflows into BTC and ETH. High implied volatility heading into the year suggests traders are pricing in a price move between $85,000 and $100,000 by December 26th.
According to the analyst firm, this week's Federal Reserve meeting and the subsequent Bank of Japan decision will be key drivers of year-end volatility. Due to the tight base in futures trading, traders are now increasingly turning to delta-neutral strategies in altcoins with high funding yields and low market caps. This suggests that directional altcoin risk has significantly diminished and “yield optimization” is gaining prominence in the market.
Wintermute notes that the crypto market is consolidating without a clear direction, with the real breakout expected after the Fed and other macro developments. The firm believes current price action represents a pause rather than a reversal, with liquidity and positioning dynamics expected to remain the primary sources of volatility through the end of the year.
*This is not investment advice.