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Monero Price Analysis - XMR Still Sees 25% Weekly Gains Amidst Privacy Bug


coincodex.com 29 July 2021 15:25, UTC
Reading time: ~5 m

Key highlights:

  • Monero is up by a solid 25% this week as the coin passes $240.
  • Despite a privacy bug appearing, the coin is performing remarkably well as transactions per block nearly double.
  • Against Bitcoin, XMR rebounded from support at ₿0.0056 (.618 Fib) and is at ₿0.006.

Buy Monero on Binance

Monero price $246.85
Key XMR resistance levels $250, $265, $275, $290, $300
Key XMR support levels $235, $225, $220, $212, $205

*Price at the time of writing

Monero surged by a solid 25% this week after rebounding from support at $180 to break a long-term descending trend line. Since the trend line break, XMR passed the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMA levels and hit $240 today. 

The cryptocurrency is now testing the 200-day EMA level as it trades inside a rising price channel.

Interestingly, the total number of daily transactions for Monero seems to be on the rise as it surpasses the peak for the year;

The talk of the town is how private are Monero transactions. Last year, CipherTrace filed to patents for technology that is capable of tracing Monero transactions. In addition, research from Carnegie Mellon University suggested that around 30% of XMR transactions are traceable.

In more recent days, the Monero team announced they had found a bug in their code that might lead to a reduction in privacy. In their Decoy system;

A rather significant bug has been spotted in Monero's decoy selection algorithm that may impact your transaction's privacy. Please read this whole thread carefully. Thanks @justinberman95 for investigating this bug.


— Monero || #xmr (@monero) July 27, 2021

According to their assessment, if the coins are spent immediately following the lock time in the first two blocks, there is a reasonable probability that the output can be identified - breaking the privacy of the user. Basically, to avoid the bug, users would have to wait at least 20 minutes before spending any newly received coins. 

The team is currently working on a fix that will be integrated into the wallet when ready.

Monero is ranked in the 26th position as it presently holds a $4.34 billion market cap valuation.

Monero Coin Price Analysis

What has been going on?

Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can see that XMR was in a solid decline since the start of May. In June, it dropped lower from $310 and established a descending trend line that expanded through July. 

Over the past fortnight, XMR fell beneath $200 and continued lower until support was met at $180. Luckily, the buyers regrouped here and began to push XMR higher. It went on to break the resistance at the descending trend line (dashed line) and established a rising price channel.

XMR would then go on to break the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMA levels over the course of the 25% weekly rise. The 200-day EMA was penetrated today, and the market is now testing the 100-day EMA at around $250.

Overall, the break above the descending trend line is promising, and it ends the previous consolidation that XMR was trading inside. However, there is still much resistance toward the upside, and XMR would have to break the June highs before a bullish market can be considered. 

Monero price short term prediction: Neutral

XMR is still neutral until it can clear the June highs at around $310, at which point the market could then be considered bullish. On the other side, a drop beneath $200 is likely to send XMR in a bearish spiral in the short term.

Looking ahead, the first support lies at $235 (200-day EMA). This is followed by $225, provided the lower boundary of the ascending price channel and the 50-day EMA level. 

Beneath the price channel support lies at $220 (.382 Fib Retracement), $212 (.5 Fib Retracement & 20-day EMA), and $200. Beneath $200, additional support is found at $180.

Where Is The Resistance Toward The Upside?

On the other side, the first resistance lies at $250 (100-day EMA & upper angle of the ascending price channel). This is followed by $265 (1.272 Fib Extnesion), $275 (1.414 Fib Extnesion), $290 (1.618 Fib Extnesion), and $300.

Beyond $300, resistance lies at $310 (bearish .382 Fib Retracement), $350 (bearish .5 Fib Retracement), $389 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement), and $400.

What has been going on?

XRP has been in a tight downtrend since June against Bitcoin itself. It did hold support at ₿0.006 through the majority of June and July, however, the coin recently dipped as low as ₿0.0056, where it found support at a .618 Fib Retracement level.

The cryptocurrency has since rebounded from this support and is now trading back above ₿0.006.

However, XMR is still trading beneath a descending trend line that was established during May. Additionally, it is still beneath the 20-day EMA level. These two levels of resistance must be penetrated before a short-term bull run can be established. 

Monero price short term prediction: Neutral

XMR is neutral right now, but a break beneath the ₿0.0056 (.618 Fib Retracement) support would be the catalyst that turns XMR bearish against BTC. On the other side, XMR would still need to rise above the July peak at around ₿0.00812 before the market can be considered bullish in the short term.

Looking ahead, the first support lies at ₿0.006. This is followed by ₿0.0056 (.618 Fib Retracement), ₿0.00533 (downside 1.618 Fib Extnesion), and ₿0.005. Added support lies at ₿0.00465 (.786 Fib Retracement) and ₿0.0045.

Where Is The Resistance Toward The Upside?

On the other side, the first resistance lies at ₿0.00606, provided by the 20-day EMA and the descending trend line. Above this, resistance lies at ₿0.00632 (bearish .382 Fib & 200-day EMA), ₿0.0065, and ₿0.00685 (bearish .5 Fib Retracement).

Beyond ₿0.007, resistance lies at ₿0.00737 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement), ₿0.008, and ₿0.00812 (bearish .786 Fib Retracement & June highs).

Previous Technical Analysis

At CoinCodex, we regularly publish price analysis articles focused on the top cryptocurrencies. Here's 3 of our most recent technical analysis articles:

  • Bitcoin Price Analysis - BTC Surges Inside Ascending Price Channel as 100-Day EMA Resistance Stalls Market (Neutral)
  • XRP Price Analysis: XRP Sees 14% Price Surge After Announcement of Remittance Corridor Between Japan and the Philippines (Neutral)
  • Ethereum Price Analysis - ETH Hits Major 100-day MA Resistance, Can It Break Above? (Neutral)

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