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Binance Research, report: the 2020 BTC price had been predicted


en.cryptonomist.ch 2020-02-11 08:00
Reading time: ~2 m

Binance Research today published the first 2020 report in which they explain that their forecast made in 2019 regarding the price of bitcoin at the beginning of the year was correct.

In November 2019, Binance had in fact published a report containing a bitcoin price prediction at the end of the year. 

In fact, table 8 of paragraph 2.2 of the report stated that respondents believed that: 

  • At the end of 2019, the dominance of Bitcoin would be 69%.
  • The price of BTC would be $10,000.
  • The price of ETH would be $210.
  • The price of XRP would be $0.3. 

These forecasts turned out to be wrong, however, these prices were reached five weeks later. 

Bitcoin’s dominance did reach 68% at the end of 2019, which is very close to the forecast, but over the weeks it decreased to the current 64%. 

However, at the end of the year, the price of BTC was still at $7,200, which is very far from the prediction. Although it is often the case that in December the price of bitcoin goes through a difficult time, only to recover in the following two months. 

The fact that the forecast came true only five weeks after the end of the year should not be considered as a total failure: this is the usual post-December recovery which has already happened on at least three other occasions in the past, namely in 2011-2012, 2015-2016, 2018-2019 and in part also in 2012-2013. 

The same can be said for ETH, which closed 2019 at $130 instead of the $210, reaching the predicted price only on February 6th, 2020. 

Whereas XRP has not yet managed to reach $ 0.3, although in recent days it went close to exceeding $0.28. 

The curious thing is that these forecasts contained in Binance Research’s 2019 report were not made by the Binance team, but by the exchange’s users themselves, over a period between the beginning and end of October 2019, when BTC’s price was around $8,000, ETH’s price was around $170, and XRP’s price was around $0.3. 

Since then, BTC’s price has risen significantly, although it first fell to a low in December, as did ETH, whereas XRP’s price has actually fallen, although it seems to be recovering.


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