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Altseason, an evanescent event that seems to appear only once in a blue moon. While alts have had their fair share of gains this year, its nothing compared to the increases witnessed in during the last altseason. While it’s been a long time since the last, one analyst believes that altseason may be delayed even longer, until 2020.
The idea of an altseason following (BTC) parabolic run-up past five figures is an exciting one. Altcoins, in comparison to Bitcoin (BTC), are still hurting from the 2018 bear market, where, in some cases, over 80% of value was completely wiped out.
When altseason?
Despite various analysis’ auguring for an incoming altseason during Bitcon’s periods of consolidation, alts have stayed relatively placid, other than their usual correlation to BTC.
However, one analyst believes he may have cracked the code. Taking a more macro view Moon Overlord - as he is known on Twitter - suggests that altseason may be a little further away than previously anticipated.
Comparing Bitcoins price history during 2012 to 2015 with the altcoin market cap of 2016 to present, the analyst suggests that the same course of action may be about to play out for altcoins as it did for Bitcoin back during 2012, noting a fractal that could lead altcoins to new highs in 2020, after a period of accumulation.
Side by side for better comparison$BTC $ALTS pic.twitter.com/nP6307nNpg
— Moon Overlord (@MoonOverlord) July 6, 2019
Whether or not this will play out is pretty much anyone’s guess right now. Regardless, for now, it seems as though alts are going to continue their struggle to match Bitcoins pace.
Bitcoin rules
Right now Bitcoin is at 62% market dominance and refusing to budge, with altcoins suffering as a result.
During the last altseason, BTC dominance was at around 33%. This was preceded by a 35% drop in BTC dominance which lasted just over a month, dropping from 59% on the 4th of December 2017 to 33% on the 8th January 2018, and causing a major increase in altcoin prices in-between.
In order to see another, now almost mythical altseason, it’s likely we’ll have to see a major and rapid drop in BTC dominance, otherwise, alts will continue to lag behind. For now, 2020 maybe altseason's best bet.