coindesk.com
Crypto-focused prediction market Polymarket is facing a fresh dose of criticism this week in relation to a market on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit before July.
More than $160 million worth of crypto was bet on the market, with the initial outcome of "yes" being disputed by the validators behind $UMA, the oracle protocol that determines the results.
The price of "yes" has now plummeted to $0.04 from $0.19, giving an implied probability of outcome at just 4%. The "yes" voters are striking back, claiming that Zelenskyy did indeed wear a suit at the NATO summit on June 24 and that there could be foul play by $UMA validators to swing the decision.
The validators are holders of $UMA protocol tokens, who get to vote on the veracity of the real-world data that's encoded in the protocol's oracle. In theory, a large-enough swathe of token-holders could manipulate a result to their own choosing.
This is not the first time there has been a divide between Polymarket and $UMA communities. In March another Ukrainian-themed market was disputed amid claims of manipulation from large holders of $UMA.
"We all know the whales are trying to rig the $UMA vote on the Zelensky suit market," X user Atlantislq wrote. "But that doesn’t mean we should stay silent. This is a critical moment Polymarket claims to care about truth and decentralization so let’s hold them to it."
AI chat bot Grok took the side of "yes" voters, saying that "Zelenskyy wore a suit in June 2025."
On the other side, popular menswear influencer and writer who goes by the moniker "derek guy" bet $3.6 million on the market resolving as "no." He stands to make $72,000 if the bet is successful.
A final resolution on the market will be made at 00:00 UTC on July 8.