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Ten days ago, after former President Donald Trump was convicted on 34 counts connected to a hush-money scheme, Polymarket bets indicated his chances of winning the 2024 election still stood at 54%, compared to incumbent President Joe Biden’s 40%. Since that time, the gap between Trump and Biden has widened significantly, with Polymarket odds increasingly favoring Trump.
Prediction Market Polymarket Shows Increasing Gap Between Trump and Biden
Currently, a prediction market on Polymarket, fueled by Polygon, hosts a wager titled “Presidential Election Winner 2024.” The betting period concludes on Nov. 5, 2024, and as of Sunday, June 9, the total bets have reached $155.78 million. Last week, the odds on Polymarket indicated Trump leading Biden with a 54% chance against Biden’s 40%. These probabilities have since shifted, showing a more substantial lead for Trump according to Polymarket bettors.
As of June 9, Trump’s odds have risen to 56%, a two percentage point increase over the past week. Conversely, Biden’s odds have dropped from 40% to 34%, reflecting a six percentage point decrease. This marks the largest gap between the two candidates since the bet was established. Interestingly, Michelle Obama’s chances have also improved.
Although the former First Lady is not officially running for office, speculation continues that Biden might not secure the Democratic nomination and that Obama could be a contender. This rumor has persisted for months. Last week, Obama’s odds were at 3%, but they have since doubled to 6%, indicating growing confidence in this possibility. Meanwhile, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s odds have remained unmoving at 2%.
What do you think about the Polymarket bet that shows Trump is leading in the election odds? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.