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Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are set to rally in 2024 amid concerns that the US dollar is “on the verge of a complete collapse.”
Rising uncertainty has seen Bitcoin’s price nearly double in the past 12 months, fueling speculation that Russia is preparing to embrace the cryptocurrency. Now, a new development in China could trigger an even bigger market shift.
Economists suggest that China is on the verge of rolling out a massive $1.4 trillion stimulus package, which could revive its economy and spark a significant rise in Bitcoin and crypto prices. HSBC’s chief Asia economist Fred Neumann described the economic outlook as grim, with a stagnant household savings rate and weak consumer spending. Speaking to the Financial Times, Neumann called for “shock and awe” measures to revive China’s economy, saying a stimulus package of around $1 trillion was considered “essential.”
“Shock and awe is sometimes the right approach,” Neumann said, pointing out that incremental actions over the past 18 months have failed to restore confidence. The expectation is that a large-scale stimulus package would have a dramatic impact on both the Chinese economy and the global crypto market.
The latest economic data from China paints a worrying picture. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by just 0.6% in August, below the expected 0.8% increase. The weaker-than-expected inflation has raised fears of a deflationary spiral, putting more pressure on the government to act decisively. China’s GDP grew by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2024, but real growth after accounting for inflation was only 4%, suggesting that price pressures continue to weigh on the economy.
Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated the urgency of large-scale stimulus, predicting that China’s “bull case” would include a $1.4 trillion stimulus package over the next two years. “The longer the deflation lasts, the greater the demand in terms of reflation,” Xing said.
*This is not investment advice.