What Does Lower Than Expected US Employment Data Mean? Will there be a Rate Cut?

According to the note of Olu Sonola, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, the US Federal Reserve (FED) will refrain from making any immediate changes to US interest rates. This emerged as a response to lower-than-expected employment figures for April.

Sonola suggests the Fed will need more evidence before it can be confident that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling. Sonola says, “This slowdown in employment growth is good news for those who expect an interest rate cut as soon as possible.”

However, Sonola cautions against drawing conclusions based on a single month's data. “One month doesn't make a trend, so the Fed would probably need to see a few more months of this kind of moderation and better inflation numbers to reintroduce rate cuts (sooner),” he adds.

In its statement after its meeting concluded last Wednesday, the FED decided to keep interest rates constant, as expected. However, it was noteworthy that Jerome Powell made a speech that could be described as 'dovish' at the press conference after the decision.

*This is not investment advice.