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Market watchers are eyeing Ethereum (ETH) closely, with analyst Ali Martinez noting the possibility of a rally to $10,000.
Since March, Ethereum has shown a downward trend, prompting speculation about its ability to recover and achieve substantial gains in the next bull market. An analyst has argued for Ethereum’s potential for growth, especially when drawing comparisons to the S&P 500’s market trends.
Ethereum’s Correlation with the S&P 500
Market analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted Ethereum’s relationship with the S&P 500 (SPX) as a point of interest. Martinez shared comparative charts showing Ethereum (ETH/USD) alongside the S&P 500 Index. Both assets found a bottom in late 2022 and exhibited an upward trajectory throughout 2023.
The trend illustrated an ascending triangle pattern, which is often considered a bullish signal. The S&P 500 notably broke out of this pattern, peaking close to $5,900 before a minor retracement to approximately $5,728 at the time of Martinez’s snapshot.
This similarity in trend between Ethereum and the S&P 500 has fueled discussions on whether Ethereum might follow a similar path.
Martinez suggested that Ethereum’s current downtrend could be the final dip before a potential rally to $10,000. Notably, Ethereum would need to climb approximately 312.36% from its current price of $2,425 to reach $10,000.
#Ethereum $ETH has been mimicking the S&P500, and this could be the last dip before it triples and hits $10,000! pic.twitter.com/BgpbZQXM6I
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 4, 2024
On-Chain Metrics Reflect Indecision
On-chain data from IntoTheBlock has provided deeper insight into Ethereum’s market state. As of the latest Year-to-Date (YTD) figures, 96,660 addresses—representing 22.93% of active wallets—are currently profitable or “in the money.”
This suggests that a significant portion of holders are seeing gains, which indicates underlying support for the asset. However, 248,920 addresses, or 60.83% of total active addresses, are classified as “at the money,” holding ETH at approximately break-even levels.
This group reflects market indecision, with the potential for further investment or selling pressure, depending on price movement.
Meanwhile, 64,410 addresses (16.24%) are “out of the money,” holding ETH at a loss. This segment could add selling pressure if the price continues to weaken.
Contrasting Views on Ethereum’s Outlook
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has taken a different stance on Ethereum’s price movement. On November 1, Brandt reiterated his bearish outlook, stating that Ethereum’s charts showed no signs of a momentum shift.
Brandt’s analysis pointed to a bearish flag pattern that had been forming since August. He emphasized that a breakdown in this pattern could lead Ethereum to a lower target.
Brandt stressed the likelihood of Ethereum crashing as low as $1,551. He indicated that bearish signals dominated Ethereum’s chart, suggesting continued downward movement unless new patterns emerged.