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According to a wager on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission currently stands at just 7%. This forecast commenced in January with a 76% probability of approval but has since plummeted by 91% over the last three months.
Market Sentiment Sours on Ether ETF Ahead of SEC Decision
Before the mass approvals of 11 spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, multiple companies submitted proposals for spot ethereum ETFs, including firms like Vaneck, Blackrock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Invesco. Grayscale is making another attempt to convert its existing Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into a publicly traded entity.
There were initially high expectations for an ETH ETF approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after the bitcoin ETFs were approved, but currently, it appears the general public is skeptical about its realization.
“I think zero chance current SEC approves ETH ETF… just issued Wells Notice to HOOD… seems like Gensler is gearing up to allege it’s a security,” one individual posted on the social media platform X.
Microstrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor similarly sees no possibility of an ETH ETF being approved. Speaking at the Bitcoin for Corporations segment of the Microstrategy World 2024 event in Las Vegas, Saylor expressed that none of the alternative crypto assets would ever be included in a spot ETF.
On the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, the prospects appear bleak. Prediction markets like Polymarket are frequently recognized for their capacity to offer live predictive insights derived from crowd wisdom. In January, the Polymarket bet titled “Will an ethereum ETF be approved by May 31?” indicated a 76% likelihood of an ETH ETF gaining approval from the U.S. securities regulator.
Currently, the odds have dwindled to just 7% according to bets on Polymarket, with merely three weeks remaining in the month. If the SEC fails to approve an ETH-based ETF by May 31, 2024, at 11:59:59 p.m. ET, the market will settle at “no.” Polymarket also offers a June 30 bet, currently giving a 9% chance of approval.
The May 31 wager is valued at nearly $5 million, whereas the June 30 bet stands at just $392,279. As the deadline for the U.S. SEC’s decision on an ether ETF looms, the decline in market confidence reflects broader uncertainties in the regulatory landscape for crypto assets. While proponents of an ethereum ETF may still harbor hope, the overwhelming market sentiment on Polymarket suggests a cautious or even pessimistic outlook.
What do you think about the Polymarket bets concerning an ether ETF approval? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.