How Does Bitcoin Perform in September? Here’s What You Need to Know

Bitcoin ($BTC) started September, a month historically marked by weak performance, with a decline. Falling below $78,000 on September 1st, Bitcoin is facing pressure on the short-term outlook due to both seasonal data and expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate policy.

For Bitcoin, September is referred to as “Rektember” in the cryptocurrency market due to its past performance. Looking at data since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month on average. During this period, $BTC lost approximately 3% of its value in September on average, only ending the month with a gain five times.

However, the picture in recent years deviates from the historical trend. Bitcoin has ended the last three Septembers with gains. $BTC also gained approximately 25 percent in August, recording its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. However, after the strong rise, the possibility of consolidation or a correction due to profit-taking in the short term remains on the agenda.

Macroeconomic developments are also increasing pressure on Bitcoin. Following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish messages at the Jackson Hole symposium, sell-offs accelerated in global bond markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.784 percent.

While markets are pricing in a 66% probability of the Fed raising its policy rate by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting, investors are also considering the possibility of further rate hikes later in the year. A high interest rate environment can tighten financial conditions, support the dollar, and negatively impact demand for risky assets like Bitcoin.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are also increasing risk perception in global markets. The price of WTI crude oil rose to approximately $88 per barrel, while gold fell by over 2% on Tuesday.

Seasonal pressure isn’t limited to the cryptocurrency market. Looking at the monthly performance of the S&P 500 since 1975, September stands out as the only month with an average negative return.

Following Bitcoin’s strong August performance, September will see both historically weak seasonality and the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike as the focus of the market. In particular, the trajectory of bond yields, the strength of the dollar, and the Fed’s decision on September 16th are critical indicators for the short-term direction of $BTC.

*This is not investment advice.