Bitcoin has climbed roughly 30% from its February lows and bulls have been feeling good about it for weeks. The problem, according to one analyst who has held the same macro thesis unchanged for months, is that this is exactly how it felt before the last two major drops.
The bigger picture has not changed. Bitcoin is working through a larger corrective structure and the current move higher is a bounce within that correction, not a new bull trend. The analyst has seen this pattern play out repeatedly:
- Upward moves in corrective phases take a long time, keeping bulls feeling right for extended periods
- Volume during this rally has dropped to levels not seen since 2023, signalling a market approaching an inflection point rather than building genuine momentum
- When the eventual decline comes it tends to be sharp and fast, catching most participants off guard
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