Arthur Hayes Reveals the Biggest Threat to Bitcoin—It’s Not a War with Iran

Arthur Hayes, one of the most followed strategists in the cryptocurrency markets, shared his current predictions about Bitcoin and the global economy in a program he participated in.

Hayes argued that geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel tension have a limited impact on markets, and that the real disruptive effect will come from the changes artificial intelligence is creating in the labor market.

Hayes stated that the tension with Iran has one critical point for investors: whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will continue. Saying that the market is only focused on commodity flow, Hayes added, “If oil is flowing, the markets unfortunately don’t care about the rest of the human tragedy.”

According to Hayes, the fact that oil shipments continued despite prices remaining at $110-120 levels triggered a relief rally in the markets.

The most striking point of the interview was Hayes’s description of artificial intelligence as the “biggest risk” for Bitcoin. Hayes stated that companies are able to do more work with fewer staff thanks to AI agents, adding that engineers, accountants, and lawyers are beginning to be laid off.

Hayes pointed out that this high-salaried group being laid off (such as engineers earning $250,000 a year) has mortgage, car loan, and credit card debts, adding that this will create significant deflationary pressure on the banking system.

The renowned investor, who described Bitcoin as the world’s “liquidity smoke detector,” stated that central banks are not printing enough money to offset the deflationary effect created by artificial intelligence, which is why Bitcoin is struggling to permanently surpass the $100,000 level.

Hayes argues that for Bitcoin to break records again, the system needs to collapse at some point. He predicts that a financial catastrophe, triggered by job losses among programmers and middle managers, would push central banks back into “massive money printing,” and that’s when Bitcoin’s real surge would begin.

*This is not investment advice.