Bitcoin faces renewed downward pressure as geopolitical risks and U.S. jobs data weigh on markets

The ongoing global turbulence—now intensified by the Iran conflict—continues to impact financial markets, with cryptocurrencies at the center of investor concerns. While former President Donald Trump suggests a diplomatic breakthrough could be on the horizon, Iranian officials reject any claims of negotiation, underscoring persistent uncertainty. Against this backdrop, a prominent crypto analyst known as “the crypto oracle” has shared their perspective for April, building on a track record of accurately forecasting large market swings in recent quarters.

Market oracle maintains bearish outlook for April

March’s monthly close barely registered with many cryptocurrency investors, as Bitcoin’s sideways trading pattern dragged on and wearied the market for a second consecutive quarter. The analyst Roman Trading, often described as a “crypto oracle” for his accurate bearish predictions amid fast-moving news cycles, draws comparisons to the likes of PlanB in 2021 and CAPO in 2022. While no forecaster remains flawless forever, Roman Trading has reiterated their pessimistic forecast for the coming weeks.

“Nothing has changed. Like we saw in January, Bitcoin is once again retesting its diagonal support with low trading volume. My view is unchanged: if trading activity picks up, we’re likely to see a move downwards.”

Tensions show no sign of abating as April unfolds. On April 6, Trump signaled that hostilities would escalate, and as the new month begins, Iran remains steadfast against joining negotiations. In a statement delivered in the early hours of April 1, Trump said a regional deal is within reach, and hinted that Iranian withdrawal could follow within weeks. He also referenced possible moves to pressure NATO and did not rule out steps toward exiting the alliance within two months—suggesting wider geopolitical uncertainty is likely to persist.

Interest rate concerns rise with robust jobs data

On the economic front, the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations, raising the specter of further interest rate hikes that could impact crypto markets. Analyst DaanCrypto observed that the overall market capitalization for cryptocurrencies remains in a consolidation phase, holding above the levels that marked the start of the recent post-election rally. Despite continued declines in other financial markets, DaanCrypto argued that crypto assets have shown notable resilience. Still, he cautioned that the sector is approaching a decisive phase: if current support breaks, a rapid slide to $1.81 trillion in total market cap could unfold.

Meanwhile, questions persist about when and at what level seasoned value investors might consider buying into Bitcoin. Warren Buffett, famously skeptical of cryptocurrencies, has repeatedly dismissed digital assets, but in broader investment discussions, he has offered criteria for when assets become attractive for entry.

On-Chain Mind, a market commentator, has analyzed Buffett’s approach, suggesting that, in line with the billionaire’s ethos, purchasing Bitcoin around its 200-week moving average would be considered a reasonable move. Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week average stands near $59,000, implying that this level could serve as a reference point for cautious, long-term investors weighing potential entry into the cryptocurrency market.