finbold.com
On the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders have staked nearly $600,000 on contracts implying a 10% chance Bitcoin ($BTC) will hit $130,000 by October 1, 2025.
At the same time, the odds show a 29% probability of $BTC reaching $150,000 by year-end, which is the single largest wager with over $4.5 million in betting volume on the line.
A smaller fraction of traders sees it going even higher, 3% of them staking nearly $3 million on a $250,000 price target and 1% wagering nearly $2.2 million that it might climb to $1 million by January 1, 2026.
Is Bitcoin on track for $130k?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,700, gaining 3.5% on the weekly chart as institutional demand via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to underpin the market with $2.3 billion in recorded inflows just last week.
The macro backdrop remains driven by monetary policy. Polymarket, for instance, sees a 98% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for September 16–17.
With somewhat softer inflation readings last month, traders are also hoping for increased liquidity, a situation comparable to the 2020–2021 rally, which allowed $BTC to climb from $10,000 to $69,000.
Gold could set the stage for another Bicoin rally
Likewise, Bitcoin remains closely correlated with gold, which climbed back to over $3,650 per ounce on September 12, just as silver hit its highest closing price in 14 years.
If gold continues to trend higher, $BTC’s current consolidation could mirror previous phases that preceded breakouts, as past cycles have shown that Bitcoin tends to reverse and then break out when the precious metal peaks.
From a technical perspective, $BTC reclaimed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at just north of $114,500 after breaking out of a September downtrend channel. Now, resistance is forming at around $117,500–$118,000, with a potential upside target of $125,000 if breached.
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