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Bitcoin has been unable to break out of the downtrend it has been in since its ATH in March. While analysts expected BTC to rise after the Fed rate cut in September, Bitfinex analysts pointed to the US elections in November for the rise.
According to The Block, Bitfinex analysts said that according to historical data, Bitcoin was in a downward trend before the US presidential elections and rose after the elections.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the Bitcoin price showed a stable pattern before the last three US presidential elections, with a significant drop around two or three months before each election.
However, it also experienced significant increases after the election.
Analysts attributed these declines to the uncertainty surrounding the US elections, which usually cause market volatility, saying historical data shows BTC recovering after elections.
“In previous election cycles, such as 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin experienced significant declines before the election, followed by significant post-election recoveries. This pattern was also observed in 2012 and points to a recurring trend associated with election season.
Bitcoin fell 16% two months before the 2020 election, 30% three months before the 2016 election, and 75% about 80 days before the 2012 election.
After the 2016 elections, the price of Bitcoin rose as uncertainty in the market ended and the certainty investors were looking for returned. A similar pattern was observed after the 2020 elections.
Accordingly, the Bitcoin price rose sharply in the months following the election, amid renewed confidence in the market and economic recovery efforts.”
*This is not investment advice.