Is it Time to Buy Bitcoin? Analyzing the Recent Dip

Bitcoin has surged nearly 28% from its recent low of $49,000, climbing back near the $60,000 level. This rebound follows a notable drop in August, where Bitcoin’s price tumbled by 33.32% from its cycle high of $73,666. This decline was the largest of the current cycle.

At press time, Bitcoin price is $59,676.84 with a 24-hour trading volume of $35,050,958,497. Bitcoin is down 1.24% in the last 24 hours with a market cap of $1,177,959,350,244. Over the last 7 days, Bitcoin has risen by 8.88%.

Key metrics, such as the Mayer Multiple, show the severity of this downturn. The Mayer Multiple fell to 0.88, a level not seen since the FTX collapse in November 2022. This indicates a strong bearish phase, with Bitcoin trading far below its historical average.

Source: Bitfinext-Alpha-117

On-chain metrics also highlight the intensity of the recent sell-off. The Short-Term Holder Realised Price (STH Cost-Basis) sits currently at $64,860. Bitcoin’s spot price recently touched the -1 standard deviation (SD) band below this STH Cost-Basis, a rare event seen in only 7.1% of trading days. This underscores the depth of the current market conditions.

Moreover, the Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio reveals significant unrealised losses for newer investors, the highest since the 2022 bear market lows. These metrics point to a deep bearish sentiment and stress among short-term investors, typically occurring at local market bottoms.

Source: Bitfinext-Alpha-117

In economic news, the US economy shows resilience despite concerns of a potential slowdown. Recent data indicates a drop in jobless claims and a rise in wholesale inventories, bolstering economic growth. However, household debt levels have slightly increased, adding financial strain on consumers. Despite this, delinquency rates remain stable, suggesting continued support for economic activity.

Additionally, the US services sector saw a notable rebound in July, with new orders and sector employment growing for the first time in six months. This recovery could help ease recession fears amid recent stock market volatility.

Shifting focus, Kamala Harris is leading in the 2024 US presidential race. Speculation about her potential cryptocurrency policies is rising as her team engages with industry executives. This development could influence cryptocurrency regulations in the coming months.

Furthermore, major financial institutions are advancing in the digital asset market. BlackRock and Nasdaq have requested the SEC to introduce options trading for BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF. This follows the SEC’s approval of Ethereum-linked ETFs from several firms.

However, the SEC has delayed the approval of Hashdex’s proposed ETF, which aims to hold spot Bitcoin and Ether. This delay, extending until September 30, 2024, shows the SEC’s cautious approach.