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Institutional developments and remarks from Nashville cast a more bullish outlook for Bitcoin and BTC mining than before, says H.C. Wainwright & Co analysts.
Bullish catalysts have lined up for Bitcoin (BTC) and the BTC mining industry as the U.S. may be poised to adopt the leading cryptocurrency nationally, HWC analyst Mike Colonnesse wrote in a weekly report on July 30.
Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump outlined his crypto approach at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, including plans to create a government reserve with around $12 billion in BTC.
Trump pledged to position America as the world’s undisputed Bitcoin mining leader. A Bernstein report said BTC mining presents a $20 billion industry opportunity, piling on the arguments for BTC mass adoption and global acceptance.
While Senator Lummis also outlined a strategic BTC reserve plan, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy proposed accumulating 1 million BTC, Polymarket data placed Trump in the lead to win November’s election.
Trump’s 60% chance of becoming America’s 47th president seemingly promises to propel Bitcoin as an asset class and, by extension, the broader cryptocurrency industry.
Furthermore, if Trump is elected, Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler could receive the sack. It could be a boon to the digital asset ecosystem since the SEC’s crackdown on blockchain finance and digital assets would effectively grind to a halt.
Colonnesse wrote that Trump’s possible victory, increased institutional buying via spot exchange-traded funds, and regulatory clarity under new SEC leadership may skyrocket the entire BTC sector in the next 12 months.
Does more adoption mean higher prices?
Trump’s plans, more institutional buying, and U.S. national adoption could mean less BTC in open circulation. Coupled with the halving, which drives scarcity by reducing mining rewards, Bitcoin prices could go parabolic.
Speaking in Nashville, MicroStrategy founder and BTC maxi Michael Saylor presented his 21-year prediction for the crypto. The best-case scenario tagged BTC at $49 million per coin by 2045 and at least $3 million if markets slowly trot upwards.
Possible Bitcoin bear obstacles
The HWC analyst noted that BTC and mining operations would benefit from a more favorable macroeconomic environment and less global geopolitical unrest.
Colonnesse explained that possible headwinds from these two factors may ease in the months. The Federal Reserve looks likely to cut rates toward the end of the third quarter and the start of Q4 2024. Looser monetary policies usually improve market sentiment and investor demand for risk assets, a term commonly used to classify Bitcoin and other blockchain currencies.