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Bitcoin price action has historically been abysmal in March.
Although seasonality suggests not to expect very much this month, a quarterly bullish crossover could result in a massive move up before the month is over.
Bitcoin Quarterly Recurrence Points To More Upside
While the market panics as Bitcoin clings onto $22,000, higher timeframe signals could be pointing to a surprise to the upside before the month ends.
In technical analysis, the higher the timeframe, the more dominant the signal. Put more simply, monthly charts trump weekly charts which are more important than daily charts.
Quarterly charts are often ignored because little action takes place for a full 90 days. Three months pass between open and close, leaving a long time for market conditions to change and candle to develop.
This also means signals fire less often, but are much more meaningful. Which is why the latest signal on the Bitcoin quarterly chart is so significant.
The 3-month candle could have more to climb | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Stochastic Suggests The Beginning Of A Bigger Recovery
Originally spotted by market psychology coach Christopher Inks, the 3M Stochastic has crossed bullish after touching down on oversold conditions. In past instances, this resulted in a massive bullish candle — much larger than what has developed in Q1 2023 thus far.
Bitcoin is barely holding onto 30% of a 50% rebound from lows. Previous examples of this signal resulted in rallies of 117% and 246% the two times the crossover occurred. More importantly, each explosive quarterly candle kicked off two years of bull market, with the lows of the quarterly candle never retested again.
Bulls aren’t completely safe, despite the powerful signal of a possible trend change. Crossing bearish historically results in an equally powerful down candle, which could cripple any chance of a recovery a while longer. Such a scenario has never happened before, but isn’t impossible.
How March closes means a lot more than just the monthly, it also means the fate of the quarterly close and possibly the confirmation of a new trend.