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“Large-scale, socio-economic shifts take generations to settle in and normalize. The old guard needs to die, so that those born into the new paradigm can lead,” said Aleksander Svetski.
Svetski is the author of “The UnCommunist Manifesto,” The Bitcoin Times, and the viral and controversial “Remnant Series” in a recent op-ed for Bitcoin Magazine.
“I like to think that I am maturing in how I view Bitcoin,” Svetski adds before outlining three major epochal shifts leading toward mass Bitcoin adoption.
Generation One: The Infection Stage
Svetski calls this the first-era of mass adoption set to span 20 years.
“In this stage, Bitcoin had to prove that it was something someone would trade for money (or pizza). It had to show a significant commercial “proof of concept,” which it did with Silk Road. It needed to proceed through an early stage of monetization (Mt. Gox) and it had to then inspire an entire industry of copycats because what it did was so transformative — which we’ve seen with shitcoins.”
Generation Two: The Infrastructure Stage
Svetski predicts within this stage things like the Lightning Network will be more advanced — alongside other abstracted layers anchored in Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has matured and the volatility has dampened a bit, and b, so many services now offer bitcoin as a funding option, you decide that it’s the standard against which you’ll measure your gains. It’s no longer the speculative asset first.”
Generation Three: The Mass Adoption Stage
Svetski predicts this is when Bitcoin becomes a truly global force integrated into every aspect of personal and institutional finance, a zero-sum approach to Bitcoin as an all-or-noting asset of the future.
“Bitcoin is where we’ll end up, but the wealth needs to change hands first and that will take time. This is why I believe this third generation is where the mass adoption phase occurs. They will come of age in a world where we have superior financial technology and an economic infrastructure that will allow them to use bitcoin as capital. The most liquid, the most widely-accessible, the most significant, trusted form of capital available.”
He predicts this will take several more decades, likely not until the late 2060s.
“Take this to 2069, and you’re talking about a completely different world. This is when Bitcoin truly comes of age. It’s the stage when fiat either dissolves, dies or becomes some relic of the past, while Bitcoin becomes both a global settlement layer and the global money.”
Conclusion – Bitcoin as the Web2 Assassin
Ultimately, Svetski posits some interesting theories about the future of not only Bitcoin, but the future of broader social and economic transitions — many of which are already beginning to take shape.
“What matters,” according to Svetski, “is to recognize that Bitcoin is a multi-generational phenomenon. It’s not Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, a smartphone, PayPal, Visa, a stock or a mere commodity. It’s so much bigger than all of these combined and, because of how fundamentally significant this is, it will take people time to adopt it.”